September 30, 2021 MLB and NFL Plays

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Yesterday’s MLB Recap

Just a bad day all around in the MLB as the system never got anything going. As you can see from the chart, it never got both predictions correct for any games but had several games where it got both wrong and dug itself a hole that was tough to get out of.

3-star plays went 1-2 for the second day in a row as well. The Red Sox took care of business, but the other two plays came up short. Jose Berrios had a no hitter through 5 innings against the Yankees which was making the under look great, but the final score of the game ended 6-5. Then the Dodgers/Padres game had a total of 8 runs scored after the top of the 3rd inning so that under stood no chance either.

Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.

Today we have a big slate of MLB games but there is only one 3-star play for it because I don’t like much of what is in store tonight. We also have some Thursday Night Football action between the Bengals and Jaguars to discuss. Let’s see what today’s predictions are.

MLB Predictions

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

The Red Sox run line has been a 3-star play for 3 straight days now and in the previous two days it has gone 1-1. Tonight’s matchup once again looks rather enticing and I think the Sox are more than capable of winning this game by 2 or more runs.

After blowing a two run lead and losing the game 4-2 on Tuesday, Boston came back last night and reestablished themselves as one of the best teams in the league by winning 6-0 against Baltimore. Nathan Eovaldi picked up the win and pitched 6 shut out innings which was great to see, and Baltimore finished the game with just 4 total hits.

Tonight looks like it could be a similar story as Nick Pivetta (9-7 record, 4.52 ERA) is set to make the start for Boston. Pivetta has a rather large sample size of games against this Orioles team as he has started 4 games against them this season, and all 4 of those starts have resulted in a win for Boston. The run line is 3-1 in the games that Pivetta has started, but the Red Sox have won by an average of 4.75 runs per game with him on the mound. Boston is also lucky because they get to face Alexander Wells (1-3 record, 7.61 ERA) and he has given up 13 total runs in his last 14 innings, with one of his most recent starts coming against Boston where he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings.

The over has been a common theme for these teams in their season series but in this series the under is 2-0. The system is leaning towards the under, but with Wells on the mound I think this game could see a lot of runs scored. I would stay away from the total, but backing the Sox on the run line again is a smart play.

System Predicts- Red Sox -1.5, UNDER 10

NFL Predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have been a pleasant surprise this season and quite possibly could be 3-0 if Joe Burrow didn’t fall apart in the second half against the Bears. Their offense has looked great so far and their defense has stepped up to the plate through 3 games, which is why I agree with the system that they cover tonight and the score stays low.

The line has moved up to 7.5 as I am writing this but I still think that is a good play. Outside of one quarter in the previously mentioned game against the Bears, Joe Burrow has looked great and the rest of the offense has performed well because of it. The addition of Ja’Marr Chase gives their passing attack another deep threat and Joe Mixon is currently ranked second in the league in rushing yards, giving this offense plenty of options when it comes to moving the ball down the field.

However, the same thing can’t be said about Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. Lawrence has looked terrible through his first 3 starts, completing just 54.2% of his passes and he leads the league in interceptions with 7. Jacksonville has weapons in Marvin Jones, DJ Chark, and James Robinson, but Lawrence is constantly feeling pressure and trying to make too many plays, often leading to turnovers. That likely isn’t going to fly against this Bengals defense tonight, a group that has forced 4 turnovers, has 10 sacks, is allowing the 6th fewest amount of points per game (18), 8th fewest rushing yards per game (78.3), and is ranked 14th when it comes to passing yards allowed per game (238.7).

Statistically speaking the Bengals offense might be slightly worse than Jacksonville, but Burrow and the rest of the squad have been much more efficient with the ball and should cover in this game. Jacksonville’s offense has been bad and is only averaging 17 points per game and their defense is allowing 427.3 yards of offense per game, which is going to allow Cincinnati to move up the field with ease. It’s tough to put a lot of trust in the Bengals, but they have looked far better on both sides of the ball and I think they win this game 24-10 which will cash the cover and the under.

System Predicts- Bengals -7, UNDER 46

Conclusion

That is all for today folks. A short write up overall, but considering how things have gone in the MLB over the past 2 days I think it is smart to just ride with 1 pick and then put some money on the NFL predictions.

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