September 28, 2021 MLB Plays

Yesterday’s MLB Recap

Yesterday was a rough way to start the week as the system finished with a record of 5-5 overall. Nothing crazy really happened and overall it was a boring day, but it was disappointing to see the system take a bit of a loss.

3-star plays went down with the ship yesterday as well and finished 0-2. The Indians/Royals under was looking good until the bottom of the 8th inning, and the Nationals/Rockies over never really stood a chance after both teams got off to a slow start, although they scored 9 total runs by the time the game ended.

Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.

Yesterday’s NFL Recap

What a disaster in Dallas. Philadelphia looked horrible on both sides of the ball and after the first quarter the under and the Eagles spread were toast. 14 points were scored in the first 5 minutes and Dallas was able to do whatever they wanted on the ground and in the air which is why they were able to put 41 points on the board.

Between horrible defense and bad execution on offense, it was clear Philly never stood a chance and their week 1 win was probably just a fluke. Jalen Hurts was missing throws all night, they only ran the ball with Miles Sanders 2 times the entire game, and they gave up almost 400 yards of total offense, all of which is a recipe for a big loss.

Yesterday’s NFL chart is attached below.

Today we have a larger slate of MLB games that will hopefully get us back on track. Let’s see what tonight’s predictions are.

MLB Predictions

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

The Red Sox get a nice matchup today against the Orioles which is great for keeping their playoff hopes alive. Boston has dominated Baltimore all year as many expected, and today they should continue that trend.

The Red Sox have been flat out dominant when they have squared off against the Orioles, especially within the last month or so. In the previous 6 meetings between the two squads Boston has gone 6-0, is outscoring Baltimore 54-15, and has covered the run line in all 6 games and are winning by an average of 6.5 runs per game. To make things even better, Chris Sale (5-0 record, 2.57 ERA) will get the start for the Sox and he has been dealing since coming back from injury. Sale has not given up more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 7 starts and that trend remains true against Baltimore, who he has pitched a total of 10 innings against they season and has only surrendered 3 runs.

Sale is dominant on the mound, but if you were to go with a total in this one I think it has to be the over. Bruce Zimmerman (4-4 record, 4.83 ERA) will start for Baltimore and he has given up at least 2 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Plus, the Sox and Orioles have combined for at least 9 runs in 4 of their last 6 meetings and in the two games where 9 runs were not scored they combined for 8.

I love Boston on the run line despite it not providing too much value, and I agree with the system that the over is in play for this game as well.

System Predicts- Red Sox -1.5, OVER 9

LA Angels @ Texas Rangers

I’m not a fan of making an over a 3-star play because usually when I do it never hits, which is exactly what happened yesterday. However, I think the over in this matchup should be given some consideration although it should be taken with caution.

I want to start this off by saying that the money line can truly go either way in this game so I would stay away from it. The Angels are the better team overall, but they are just 34-40 on the road this season and Texas is 33-42 at home. Also, LA has lost 8 of their last 10 games and Texas is only slightly better, having lost 7 of their last 10. I can’t confidently say who is going to win this game, because it truly is a coin flip.

However, the over is in play solely because of the pitching battle on our hands. Packy Naughton (0-3 record, 5.23 ERA) will start for the Angels and A.J. Alexy (2-1 record, 5.00 ERA) will start for Texas, which is not an ideal situation for either team. Naughton has only pitched a total of 20.2 innings this season and in his last 2 starts he has pitched just total 6.2 innings, giving up 10 hits and 8 total runs. Alexy has been slightly better on the mound, but he has only pitched 18 total innings and has given up 10 runs in his last two starts and did not make it more than 3.2 innings in either game.

The Angels are 5-3 in their last 8 games vs Texas but I just don’t trust them on the road. Take the over with some caution in this one, but I do think it is the best play for this game.

System Predicts- Angels ML, OVER 9

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

The Giants run line might be my most confident play of the night and I love them to win by several runs tonight at home.

By now everyone knows about the difference in skill level between these two teams so I’m not going to go into depth about it, but San Fran has won 102 games this season and Arizona has won only 50 and that’s basically all you need to know.

San Fran ranks higher in every category imaginable on the mound and at the plate and we will see a clinic tonight. Logan Webb (10-3 record, 3.04 ERA) will start for San Fran and there is no doubt he will hold down the fort. In his last 6 home starts, Webb has pitched a total of 39.1 innings and has only given up 8 total runs and he has gone up against some good teams in the Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, and Astros. He has yet to face the Diamondbacks this season, but given that they are ranked 24th in runs per game and have only won 20 road games this season I don’t see Webb having much of a problem.

Luke Weaver (3-6 record, 4.38 ERA) gets the start for Arizona and he is likely going to be in for a rough one tonight against a Giants team that is ranked in the top 6 in the MLB in hits and runs scored.

Arizona gives up the second most runs and hits per game and I can’t think of a scenario in which they keep this game close. I expect San Fran to win this one by 4 or 5 runs in what is a high scoring game, as the Giants and Dbacks have combined for 8 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 meetings against one another.

System Predicts- Giants -1.5, OVER 8

MLB Parlay

Daily Parlay- Giants -1.5, Red Sox -1.5

ODDS: +187

Conclusion

That is all for today folks. I’m hoping today ends much better than yesterday and that the 3-star plays all hit, which I’m confident will happen tonight.

Let’s get back on track today!

Jmack