September 26, 2021 MLB and NFL Plays

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Yesterday’s MLB Recap

Yesterday might have been the best day the MLB system has ever seen. At the end of the night the system finished with an overall record of 18-6 and produced quite a a large profit.

Unfortunately, one of the 6 losses that was suffered was a 3-star play. The Dodgers got smacked around by the Diamondbacks and lost that game 7-2, which is something that I did not expect. However, the Giants took care of the Rockies once again and the under hit as well, making 3-star plays finish the night with a 2-1 record.

Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below

Yesterday’s NCAA Football Recap

Overall yesterday was not a great day and a lot of things did not go the system’s way.

The Wisconsin/Notre Dame under was looking very good until the 4th quarter. The score was tied 10-10 and then all of a sudden Notre Dame decided to score 31 points in the final 15 minutes, crushing all hopes and dreams for the under. Michigan State was covering the spread multiple times during the first half, but that game ended up going into overtime and the Spartans only won by 3. However, Iowa and Colorado State finished with a score of 24-14, so at least that under hit for us.

Yesterday’s NCAA Football chart is attached below.

Today we have a monster slate of MLB and NFL games. I’m sure most people care more about the NFL, but the MLB has some value in it today as well. Let’s see what today’s predictions are.

MLB Predictions

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Today we have an AL Central matchup between the Royals and Tigers going down in in Detroit. Both teams have snagged one win in the series so far, but the under has been a common theme in this one and I agree with the system that it is a good play to back again today.

Kansas City and Detroit are two middle of the road teams when it comes to hitting the baseball and that is always great for the under. Both teams rank outside of the top 20 in runs scored per game, but Kansas City ranks top 10 in hits and batting average while Detroit is barely inside the top 16 in both of those categories. However, Kansas City is only averaging 6 hits per game in this series and Detroit is only slightly better with 8.5, showing that neither has done a whole lot at the plate.

Even if both teams get runners on base, they struggle to get them all the way around. Kansas City is averaging just 2 runs per game in this series and Detroit is only averaging 3 and that trend should continue today. Wily Peralta (4-3 record, 3.04 ERA) will start for Detroit and he has only given up 1 total run in his last 17 innings, and in his two most recent starts he has pitched at least 6 shutout innings. Kris Bubic (5-6 record, 4.80 ERA) will start for KC and he has been just as good as Peralta recently, giving up 5 runs in his last 17 innings.

The pitching battle is good, the scoring has stayed low through two games, and the under is 2-0 in the series. Take the under again in this one.

System Predicts- Tigers ML, UNDER 9

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

The under is once again a 3-star play in this one but I would be a little bit cautious if you choose to take it.

Kevin Gausman (14-6 record, 2.92 ERA) is going to get the start for San Fran today and that is usually a good thing to see if you bet the under. However, in his last start against the Rockies the final scores was 10-5 in favor of the Giants, so although the Giants picked up the win the runners were still getting across the plate. Also, Gausman has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, but 2 of those 3 games still saw 11 runs or less.

Despite that, the trends still say to back the under in this spot. It is now 12-6 this season when these two squads face off and it is 2-0 in this series. San Fran has won both games this series by 5 runs as well, making the money line, or run line, and the under two viable plays today.

System Predicts- Giants ML, UNDER 11

MLB Parlay

Daily Parlay- Giants/Rockies UNDER. Tigers/Royals UNDER

ODDS: +249

NFL Predictions

Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions

The defense’s have for both teams have been atrocious this season and have holes all over the place, whether it is because of injuries or just being young. As a result, I agree with the system that the over is a good play here.

Through two weeks the Detroit defense has given up an average of 400.5 yards per game which ranks them 21st in the league, and believe it or not the Ravens are in a much worse position. The Baltimore defense ranks 30th in the league with 461 yards given up per game, showing that the injuries they have suffered on that side of the ball are hurting their chances to win games and allowing their opponents to move the ball with ease. In addition, Baltimore is giving up 34 points per game and Detroit is right there with them, giving up 38 points per game.

Both defense’s are horrible, but the offenses know how to move the ball and put points on the board. The Ravens are averaging 457 total yards per game and scoring 31.5 points per game, both of which rank in the top 4 in the NFL. Detroit is also ranked surprisingly high in those categories too, ranking 12th in both (404 total yards of offense per game, 25 points scored per game).

There are holes everywhere for both teams on the defensive side of the ball and the offense’s know how to find the end zone, which is a lethal combination for the over. I would suggest avoiding the spread in this one, but this game has shootout potential and the over has is 2-0 for both teams through their first 2 games.

System Predicts- Ravens -7, OVER 50.5

New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots

The system likes the Saints to roll in to New England and pick up the win today, but I’m on the fence about that prediction. However, the under in this game is something that I’ve had my eyes on all week and I think it is worthy of 3-stars.

The Saints offense stinks. Despite putting up 38 points in week 1 against Green Bay, New Orleans only averages 240 yards of offense per game which ranks them dead last in the NFL through two weeks. Furthermore, for some reason Jameis Winston hasn’t been able to move the ball that well through the air yet as he is averaging just 130 passing yards per game and is completing 59% of his passes. New England is a little bit better, but a majority of their work comes from the ground game and we have only seen Mac Jones throw for 1 touchdown so far. In addition, both teams rank outside the top 18 in points per game, showing that the offense’s are a little sluggish.

What both teams lack on the offensive side of the ball is immediately made up for on defense though. New Orleans is only giving up 14.5 points per game (6th in NFL) and New England is even better, only giving up 11.5 points per game (2nd in NFL). Both squads also rank in the top 15 in fewest passing and rushing yards allowed per game.

Nothing about the quarterback play for both teams so far makes me confident that there will be lots of points put on the board today. Both defenses have been rock solid and neither offense has been very impressive. I would take the under in this one, which is 2-0 for both teams this season, and even though I don’t think New Orleans gets the win, I do think they cover and we see a final score of 17-16.

System Predicts- Saints +2.5, UNDER 43.5

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the surprise team of the young NFL season, and I think they have been more than good enough to warrant being a 3-star play today.

Derek Carr has been electric and has this Las Vegas offense humming. Through 2 weeks Carr is averaging 408.5 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game and has been spreading the ball around quite nicely. Darren Waller is obviously his best weapon, but we are also seeing Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfroe, and Bryan Edwards making massive impacts. The Raiders also rank 1st in total yards per game (475.5), 1st in passing yards (391), and 7th in points scored per game (29.5).

Jacoby Brissett will get the start today for Miami and I was not impressed by what I saw when he came in to relieve Tua. Brissett completed just 24 of 40 pass attempts for 169 yards and 1 interception, and today he has to go up against a Raiders defense that is only allowing 22 points per game (10th best in NFL) and has already forced 3 turnovers and has 5 sacks through 2 weeks.

Brissett being the starter in this one and Miami being on the road makes me think Las Vegas can win this game by 7-10 points. I would take the points with the Raiders today and would suggest taking the under in this one for the fact that both defenses have been decent and the Miami offense is likely not going to get much going today.

System Predicts- Raiders -3.5, UNDER 44.5

NFL Player Prop

This prop doesn’t come from the system, but based on what I have seen so far I think it is worth putting some money on.

Today’s prop is Lamar Jackson OVER 71.5 rushing yards and it is now one of my favorite plays today. Baltimore leads the league in rushing yards per game with 220 and Lamar is obviously a huge reason why as he is averaging 96.5 rushing yards per game on an average of 14 attempts.

Lamar gets to face a Lions defense that gives up 113.5 rushing yards per game today and I think we see him carve them up on the ground. The volume is always there for Jackson and today is a great matchup for him, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run for over 100 yards.

Jmack Predicts- Lamar Jackson OVER 71.5 rushing yards

NFL Parlay

Sunday Parlay- Lions/Ravens OVER, Saints/Patriots UNDER, Raiders -3.5

ODDS: +611

Conclusion

That is all for this Sunday’s write up. Baseball was fantastic yesterday so hopefully we can repeat that, and it’s my hope that the NFL predictions perform better than the NCAA did yesterday.

Let’s have a good end to the week!

Jmack