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Yesterday’s MLB Recap
Last night got off to a rough start for the system, but as the night came to a close it was able to go on a nice run and finish with a record of 16-10 and produce a profit for us going into the weekend.
3-star plays showed up in a big way and had a nice little sweep of their own. The Rangers had a big 9th inning and scored 5 runs which pushed the total well above 9.5, the Brewers handled business against the Mets and won 5-1, and the Dodgers had a bit of a close call against the Diamondbacks but still covered the line in a 4-2 victory. We also had our daily parlay hit which provided a nice little bonus.
It was a great night in the MLB and hopefully we see a similar result today. Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.
Today we have a great slate of MLB and NCAA Football games to kick off the weekend. There are more MLB games on today than what is predicted, but since I’m writing this a little bit earlier than usual some of the lines are not out yet. Let’s get right into it and see what today’s predictions are.
LA Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers came through last night and covered the run line for us in what was a 4-2 victory. It was a close call, but as far as I’m concerned the LA run line should continue to be the play in this series.
The Dodgers have now covered the run line in 2 consecutive games and have done so in 4 consecutive games against the Diamondbacks. LA seems to be able to do whatever they want against Arizona and that should continue today as Zac Gallen (2-10 record, 4.53 ERA) is set to take the mound for the Dbacks. Gallen has started two games against the Dodgers this year and has given up a total of 6 runs in 11 innings of work and the run line went 1-1 in those starts.
The over is a decent play here, but I feel more comfortable backing the Dodgers to win by 2+ runs. Clayton Kershaw (10-7 record, 3.27 ERA) will start for LA and he is 2-0 against Arizona this season and the Dodgers have covered the run line in both of his starts. In addition, the LA run line is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between them and Arizona, making this once of the best plays of the day.
System Predicts- Dodgers -1.5, OVER 8.5
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
The rare 3-star sweep is making an appearance in this game and I love everything about it.
For starters, the pitching matchup in this game is going to be quite good. Anthony DeSclafani (12-7 record, 3.23 ERA) will be on the mound for San Fran and Jon Gray (8-11 record, 4.17 ERA) will get the start for the Rockies. DeSclafani gave up 3 runs in his last start against the Rockies but the Giants ended up winning that game by a score of 7-4 and that has seemed to be the trend in this season series. San Fran is 13-4 against the Rockies this season and has just flat out dominated them all season, which is why I’m surprised the money line is so low in this one.
The under is 11-6 this season when these two squads face off and I once again think that is a great play in this matchup as well. The last time DeSclafani started the score stayed under 11.5 runs and the story is similar for when Jon Gray steps on the mound because the under is 2-0 in his two starts against the Giants. Both the Giants money line and the under were successful in yesterday’s matchup and I don’t think there is a reason to go against the trends. Back both of those plays tonight in what should be a competitive game.
System Predicts- Giants ML, UNDER 11.5
Daily Parlay- Dodgers -1.5, Giants ML
NCAA Football Predictions
Nebraska @ Michigan State
The Michigan State Spartans are on a roll and have been causing problems for 3 straight weeks. Everything about this team looks fantastic so far, and as a result I agree with the system that they cover the spread tonight.
Through 3 weeks Michigan State has proven that they are one of the best offenses in college football and they have been catching a lot of people by surprise. Before the season the over/under of wins for Michigan State was set at 5.5, and now it looks like they are well on their way to 8 or 9. The Spartans rank 19th in total yards per game with 532.3, 20th in rushing yards per game (263.7), and they rank inside the top 30 in points scored per game with 39.3. Starting QB Payton Thorne has thrown for 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and MSU has one of the best running backs in the nation so far this season in Kenneth Walker, who has rushed for 493 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 weeks. The Spartans offense has been able to move the ball easily and however they want to, and we should see that continue tonight.
Nebraska did keep the score close against Oklahoma last week which I will give them credit for, but this team is not a good football team and they have struggled on the road this season. The Corn Huskers are 0-2 on the road, with losses coming against Oklahoma and Illinois, and are only averaging 19 points per game as the away team, while at home they are scoring 40 points per game and winning with ease which is why many of their team stats are skewed in their favor.
Michigan State went on the road and defeated No. 24 Miami 38-17 last week and I think we see a similar level of dominance tonight. Nebraska only gives up 15.3 points per game and MSU is right there with them at 17.3, which makes the under a great play in this one as well. However, I would be all over the spread in this one and lay the points with the Spartans on their home turf, where I think the Spartans win by a score of 31-17.
System Predicts- Michigan State -5, UNDER 52
Colorado State @ Iowa
23 points does seem a little bit too high but I don’t really have much of an opinion on which team is going to cover. However, the under has hit in all of Iowa’s games so far and I like what the system has predicted.
This Iowa defense is absurd and has probably been the most dominant defense in all of college football. Through 3 weeks the Hawkeyes have given up a total of 30 points, with their first two games being against ranked opponents in Indiana and Iowa State. Their defense ranks inside the top 60 in fewest yards allowed per game (297 yards), rushing yards allowed per game (81 yards), and points allowed per game (10 points), making it nearly impossible for offenses to maneuver through them and get the ball down the field and into the end zone.
Colorado State does not do a bad job on offense, but they have averaged just 22 points per game and have losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt this season which does not give me much confidence in them at all today. However, the Iowa offense has not been very impressive this year and that plays into CSU’s advantage. Iowa only has 154 passing yards per game and 143 rushing yards per game through 3 weeks, which makes me think Colorado State might have a chance at keeping this one close as they allow just 24 points per game and their defense has done a great job at stopping the run this season.
Neither offense is particularly strong and from what I have seen so far Iowa’s defense can compete with anybody and hold down the fort. Iowa is 2-0 at home this season and that should become 3-0, but I think this game ends with a score of 28-10 which will hit the under and the cover for CSU (although it is only a 1 star play).
System Predicts- Colorado State +23, UNDER 44.5
Notre Dame @ Wisconsin
A neutral site game is taking place in Chicago this afternoon and I think this is going to be a gritty game.
My gut tells me that we are going to see the Badgers run the ball a ton this game which is going to go a long way for the under. Wisconsin is averaging 266 yards per game on the ground which has them ranked 19th in the NCAA and Notre Dame’s defense has been susceptible to the run this year as they give up 151 rushing yards per game. Graham Mertz has struggled to throw the ball this season, but luckily for Wisco the ground game is superb and there is no doubt it will be heavily utilized today.
On the other hand, Notre Dame moves the ball well through the air but I don’t expect to see that in today’s game. The Badger defense is one of the best in the country and is only allowing 210 total yards per game, holding their opponents to an average of 161 yards through the air and only 33 yards per game on the ground. Wisconsin is also only giving up 11.5 points per game, so it is not going to be easy for the Irish to find the end zone.
Despite being 3-0, Notre Dame has had scares against Florida State and Toledo already this season and I have very little trust in them to get the job done against the Badgers. Wisconsin held Penn State to just 17 points in week one and they had a buy week last week and should be coming in on fresh legs. Everything is pointing to a win for Wisconsin in what is a low scoring game, and my final score prediction is 24-14 in favor of Wisconsin.
System Predicts- Wisconsin -6.5, UNDER 45
Back the Under- Iowa/Colorado St. UNDER, Notre Dame/Wisconsin UNDER
That is a wrap for today everyone. We have a huge day on our hands and it is one that I think provides plenty of value across the board.
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Let’s have a good start to the weekend!