September 24, 2021 MLB Plays


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Yesterday’s MLB Recap

Just a poor day all around and one that saw a lot of red. Finishing 8-12 overall (Dodgers -1.5 should be green but I marked it red on accident) is not ideal and the system never seemed to get any sort of rhythm going.

3-star plays also went 0-2 and they both lost in a tragic way. The score of the Dodgers/Rockies game was 5-4 with two outs and an 0-2 count in the top of the 9th, and then LA ended up scoring to tie the game and eventually won 7-5 in extra innings. Similarly, Atlanta was beating Arizona 4-1 before giving up 5 consecutive runs and losing the game 6-4.

All in all, yesterday was a day to forget and hopefully today we see some things go our way. Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.

Yesterday’s NFL Recap

On the bright side, the NFL was once again accurate, sweeping the Thursday night slate just like it did on Monday.

Carolina’s defense did just enough to keep Davis Mills at bay, which was a little more challenging than I initially anticipated. Mills started to find a rhythm at the end of the first half and at the beginning of the second half, but the Panthers’ defense held their ground and held Houston to only 9 points. Sam Darnold looked great and even though McCaffrey had to leave the game they were still able to move the ball up the field on the ground and in the air, proving that they are a legitimate team this year.

Yesterday’s NFL chart is attached below.

Today we have a nice slate of MLB games that will hopefully bring in some money before a big weekend of college and NFL football begins. Let’s see what today’s predictions are.

MLB Predictions

Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles

Neither of these teams can hit the baseball well and that was on display in yesterday’s 3-0 win by Baltimore, but today there are two pitchers on the mound who cannot keep runners off of the base paths and as a result I agree with the system on the over in this game.

If you are a baseball fan who enjoys watching two pitchers go toe-to-toe for 7 or 8 innings then I would suggest watching another game, because this is shaping up to be an ugly one on the mound tonight. Spencer Howard (0-4 record, 6.86 ERA) will get the start for Texas and he has been all over the place, with more bad outings than good ones. Howard has not pitched more than 3.2 innings since June 14th and has given up 18 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings, giving up 6 runs in just one inning against the Astros a little more than a week ago.

However, things don’t exactly get better for Baltimore. Alexander Wells (1-3 record, 7.96 ERA) gets lit up just as much as Howard, if not more. Wells has given up at least 1 run in every start he has made this season and in his last 29.2 innings, which came across a span of 8 games, Wells has given up 28 runs and has given up 5 runs in two consecutive starts.

This is likely going to be a bullpen game, but Baltimore currently has the lowest bullpen ERA in the MLB (5.65) and Texas isn’t too far ahead of them (4.23). I’m expecting a lot of runs early from both teams and I see this game getting into the double digits, and since Baltimore won yesterday and they played a tightly contested series against the Phillies a few days ago I would take their run line and maybe pick them to win outright.

System Predicts- Orioles +1.5, OVER 9.5

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Both of these squads are coming off of being swept and don’t appear to be in a good spot, but I have much more confidence in Milwaukee to get back on track today.

Milwaukee dominates New York in everything, regardless of whether it is on the mound or at the plate. Just to name a few things, the Brewers rank higher in runs scored, hits, on base %, slugging %, OPS, ERA, WHIP, batting average against, runs allowed, and hits allowed. Nothing in the team comparison makes me want to lean towards New York, and there are a few other factors in the mix today that make me think the Brew crew comes out on top.

The Mets are just 29-46 on the road this season and are 2-6 in their last 8 games away from Citi Field. In addition, the pitching that New York has been getting recently has been beyond awful, given up an average of 6.75 runs per game over their last 8 games and only countering that by scoring 3.38 runs per game in that same stretch. The pitching doesn’t look like it is going to get much better today either as New York will throw Tylor Megill (3-5 record, 4.57 ERA) out onto the mound, who has given up a total of 21 runs in his last 5 starts.

Milwaukee got swept by the hottest team in baseball (Cardinals) in their last series so I’m not too worried about them going into today’s matchup. Eric Lauer (6-5 record, 3.03 ERA) is the starter today for the Brewers and he has only allowed 3 runs in his last 22.2 innings, he is 3-1 in his last 4 starts at home, and Milwaukee is outscoring their opponents 31-12 in Lauer’s last 4 home starts. Back the Brewers on the money line today in what should be a bounce back performance.

System Predicts- Brewers ML, UNDER 8.5

LA Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers failed us quite often in their most recent series against Colorado, but today is looking to be a great spot for their run line. LA managed to cover the run line yesterday and Arizona has been getting beaten quite badly recently. The Dbacks have only covered the run line in 3 of their last 7 games and we should see another poor performance from them today.

Humberto Castellanos (2-1 record, 4.11 ERA) is the starter for Arizona today and that should worry anyone who plans on backing the Diamondbacks. Castellanos has only pitched 35 innings this season and for the most part works out of the bullpen. However, he has been called upon to start some games recently and none of them have been great, as he has given up at least 3 runs in all 3 of his starts this season and has not gone longer than 5 innings in any start. In addition, Arizona gives up 5.6 runs per game, which is the second most in the MLB. Tony Gonsolin (3-1 record, 2.94 ERA) intends to start for LA and in his last start, which came against Arizona, he pitched 5 shut out innings and only gave up 2 hits.

In their most recent series against one another the Dodgers covered the run line in all 3 games and we should see a similar story today. After being flustered by Colorado, I expect LA to get back on track today with a commanding win, but I would avoid the under in this one.

System Predicts- Dodgers -1.5, UNDER 10

MLB Parlay

Daily Parlay- Dodgers -1.5, Brewers ML

ODDS: +193


That is all for today’s write up. Hopefully we have some better luck in the MLB today and make some money going into the weekend.

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