September 22, 2021 MLB Plays
Yesterday’s MLB Recap
Yesterday was a fantastic day for the MLB system. After a bit of a shaky start, the system ended the night with a record of 18-10-2 and produced a profit for the day.
3-star plays were also a big success and finished the night 2-1 overall, and the games that I wrote about in yesterday's newsletter finished 5-1 when you include the over/under predictions and money line or spread that was predicted. The Indians took care of business and shut down the Royals like I expected, and the Red Sox were down 2-0 to the Mets but ended up scoring 6 straight runs over the next 3 innings before winning 6-3. Sadly, the Dodgers only beat the Rockies by 1 run and failed to cover the run line, which they actually were doing earlier in the game when the score was 4-2.
Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.
Today we have another great slate of games and I’m hoping the system can build off of yesterday’s success. Let’s see what today’s predictions are.
MLB Predictions
Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies
There is always a little bit of hesitation when it comes to taking the Phillies’ run line, let alone making it a 3-star play. However, the stars are aligning perfectly for this matchup and I think we see the Phillies win this by 3 or 4 runs.
I mentioned this last week but Baltimore’s pitching rotation is horrendous and it seems like they are just throwing darts at a dart board and that works in favor of Philadelphia today. Keegan Akin (2-10 record, 6.93 ERA) will start for the O’s and he is just one instance of the poor pitching that his franchise has. Akin can’t find any consistency other than being consistently bad, as he has given up at least 3 runs in 13 of his last 16 starts and has not won a game in almost one month. Zach Wheeler (14-9 record, 2.83 ERA) is set to start for Philly and everyone knows how great he’s been this season. Wheeler has given up just 2 runs in his last 17.2 innings and tonight he gets to face a Baltimore hitting attack that is ranked 26th in runs per game, which makes me confident in the fact that he can keep runners off of the bases.
Baltimore gives up the most runs per game in the MLB this season (5.9) and only combats that by scoring 4 runs per game. There have only been 7 total runs scored in this series through two games and I think we once again see another low scoring affair tonight. Expect Wheeler to shut down the Orioles and for the Phillies to put up 4 or 5 runs against Akin, cashing their run line in the process as well as hitting the under.
System Predicts- Phillies -1.5, UNDER 8.5
LA Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Last night was a bit of a close call for the under as the Dodgers and Rockies were tied after 9 innings with 4 runs a piece, but only 1 additional run was scored in extra innings which allowed the under to hit and it is once again in a great spot tonight.
These are two good hitting teams, but having the over/under total in the double digits once again feels too high. Last night this was the case too, as 9 total runs were scored and neither team got a single hit or put a run on the board until the fourth inning when Colorado broke the ice. Both teams kept adding on the runs for a few innings, but ultimately the good pitching on both sides prevailed and I agree with the system that we will see that again tonight.
Walker Buehler (14-4 record, 2.39 ERA) will take the mound for LA and there is a reason why he has been a Cy Young favorite all season. Buehler constantly dominates his opponents and that remains true when he faces off against the Rockies, who he has pitched 13 total innings against and has only given up 4 runs. German Marquez (12-10 record, 4.16 ERA) will start for Colorado and there is a chance he could let a few runners across the plate, but not enough to where I think the under is jeopardy.
Both of Buehler’s starts against Colorado this season have resulted in wins for the Dodgers and both games have combined for 11 runs. Obviously those totals are higher than the 10.5 that the total is set at for tonight, but the LA bullpen is much better than they were early on in the season when these two teams faced off and there is a great chance that Buehler goes 7 or 8 innings tonight without giving up a run. I think the Dodgers win this game by a score of 6-2 and hit the under and the run line, but I would be cautious about the run line and bet it lightly if you choose to take it.
System Predicts- Dodgers -1.5, UNDER 10.5
Houston Astros @ LA Angels
I thought the Angels would put up a little bit more of a fight in this series but I have been horribly mistaken. This series has not been close in the slightest, which is why I agree with the system on backing the Astros run line again.
Through the first two games of this series Houston is outscoring the Angels 20-5 in what has been one of the most dominant displays of baseball that I can recall this season. The Astros won game 1 of this series by a score of 10-0 and only allowed 6 hits, and in game 2 they once again scored 10 runs and won the game 10-5.
Every stat in the book favors Houston, from runs, hits, on base %, slugging % and batting average, to ERA, WHIP, and batting average against. Furthermore, Houston gets to face off against rookie pitcher Janson Junk (0-1 record, 2.25 ERA), who has only pitched a total of 8 innings this season and is being put in a horrible spot against the best hitting team in baseball. Luis Garcia (11-7 record, 3.37 ERA) will start for Houston and should have no problems holding down the fort tonight.
The Astros run line and the over are both 2-0 in this series and I have a feeling this game is going to get out of hand quick once again tonight. Back the run line and the over in this one and forget about it.
System Predicts- Astros -1.5, OVER 9.5
MLB Parlay
Daily Parlay- Phillies -1.5, Astros -1.5
ODDS: +203
Conclusion
That is all for today everyone. Yesterday was quite the success and a good bounce back from Monday’s MLB performance, and I’m confident that we will see another night full of wins.
Let’s win some more money!
Jmack