September 20, 2021 MLB and NFL Plays

Yesterday’s MLB Recap

Neither of the systems did really well yesterday, but the MLB system easily had the better day. There wasn’t much coverage of the MLB yesterday because of all of the chaos going on in the NFL, but when it was all said and done the system finished with a record of 16-13-1 and basically broke even and that is now the 3rd day in a row with a winning record.

3-star plays struggled to get much going and finished the night 1-2 overall. The A’s and Angels did their part and had a low scoring game which hit the under, but the Dodgers and Reds started to score a few too many runs late in the game and hit their over and the Phillies lost 4-3 to the Mets. A bit of a disappointing day, but the fact that we escaped without much of a loss is somewhat positive.

Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.

Yesterday’s NFL Recap

Although the MLB system was able to hold its ground, the NFL system couldn’t get much traction going at all and suffered a loss.

Similar to the MLB System, 3-star plays finished the day 1-2 overall. The Browns and Texans got us off to a great start and hit their over, but that was basically it. The Cardinals found themselves down early in the game and were constantly working from behind, and whenever they had a chance to go up by a touchdown it was blown by dumb penalties or a Kyler Murray interception. The Chargers and Cowboys weren't much different either as penalties and turnovers in the red zone hurt any chance that the over had, especially in the second half.

Yesterday’s NFL chart is attached below.

Today we have a few MLB games on our hands and one NFL game between the Packers and the Lions. Let’s see what today’s predictions are.

MLB Predictions

I’m going to be honest, I don’t really like anything within today’s slate. There isn’t a specific matchup that I think can be taken advantage of and nothing is jumping out to me, which is why there are no 3-star plays. However, I’ll discuss a few predictions that I think have the best shot at hitting, both of them being totals.

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

The White Sox run line is certainly in play, but in my eyes the over is far more worth the risk especially since it is at plus odds.

The Chicago run line is only 3-2 in the last 5 meetings between these two squads and I’m not comfortable putting much money on that, but the over has been as consistent as it gets when these two face off. In their last 5 meetings the over is 4-1 overall and runners have been getting across the plate with ease. In those previous 5 games the Sox and Tigers are averaging 11.8 runs per game and they have gone above 16 runs twice.

The pitching matchup is also making me lean towards the over in this one. Carlos Rodon (12-5 record, 2.38 ERA) has been great all year, but he has been dealing with some injuries recently and hasn’t pitched in about 10 days and has only played in 2 games this month. He’s been great against the Tigers this year too, but I have trouble trusting him since he has spent a decent amount of time sitting out. Matt Manning (4-6 record, 5.75 ERA) will get the start for Detroit and he has been all over the place this season and can’t be trusted to keep one of the best hitting teams in baseball in check.

The over is a very common occurrence when these two teams face off, but I would still bet it lightly.

System Predicts- White Sox -1.5, OVER 9

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Shane Baz (0-0 record, 0.00 ERA) is making his major league debut tonight for the Rays. That makes me a little bit worried, but Baz is the number 1 pitching prospect for the Rays and has been dominating in the minors all year. I don’t expect him to pitch many innings, but Tampa Bay’s bullpen will provide plenty of back up and should keep the game from getting out of hand.

Robbie Ray (12-5 record, 2.64 ERA) is the AL Cy Young favorite and I’m not worried about him at all. His most recent start came against this Rays team and he only allowed 1 run through 7 innings, and he has only allowed more than 2 runs in one start since July 28th.

Toronto’s offense is one of the best in the league and I do think they put up enough runs to win this game outright. I also think Baz holds his ground and Ray continues his Cy Young campaign, which is why I agree with the system that this game stays under and finishes with a score of 5-2 in favor of the Blue Jays.

System Predicts- Blue Jays ML, UNDER 8

MLB Parlay

Daily Parlay- White Sox/Tigers OVER, Blue Jays/Rays UNDER

ODDS: +283

NFL Predictions

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Don’t let last week fool you. Detroit did a majority of their work in the final 5 minutes last week and made the game look closer than it truly was as they were down 31-10 at the half. There is going to be a dominant display of football tonight in Green Bay and I don’t expect this game to be very close at all.

The Detroit Lions defense is horrendous. Last week against the 49ers they gave up 450 total yards which was the 3rd most, ranked bottom 5 in passing and rushing yards allowed and gave up the most points in the league all while playing a team that only put up 17 points against the Eagles yesterday. Obviously the Packers’ offense was nonexistent last week and totally collapsed, but a little bit of rust should be expected when your franchise QB doesn’t show up to camp for several weeks.

I was close to pulling the trigger and making the over 3-stars tonight, but I left it how it was at two. Neither defense is very strong and Detroit will for sure get lit up in this one, which is great for the over because it will force Jared Goff to have to move the ball through the air and he did that surprisingly well last week. Detroit scored 33 points of their own and surrendered 41 last week, and the Green Bay defense gave up 38 points to an average Saints team.

Being back in Green Bay is all the Packers are going to need tonight and I don’t think Rodgers will ever take his foot off of the gas regardless of how big the lead gets. I feel more confident in the over than the spread, but I still think both predictions are worth putting in the mix tonight as tonight is going to be a redemption game for Green Bay.

System Predicts- Packers -12, OVER 49

NFL Player Props

I’m having trouble uploading the screenshot, but tonight’s player prop is TJ Hockenson OVER 4.5 receptions and if you want to improve the odds I think you can get this thing up to around 6.5-7.

Hockenson is the only pass catcher in this offense that Jared Goff clearly trusts. When you disregard Jamaal Williams and Deandre Swift’s recpetions, Hockenson had the most targets and the most receptions among wideouts for the Lions and was the recipient of 8 of Goff’s 57 pass attempts and had 10 targets. As I mentioned earlier, Detroit is going to find themselves down in this game and outside of the running backs Goff only trusts Hockenson and will be looking for him constantly because he really doesn’t have another choice.

System Predicts- TJ Hockenson OVER 4.5 receptions

The next prop is not a system prediction but I love it, and that is Davante Adams OVER 7.5 receptions.

Last week the Packers could hardly move the ball and Adams still had 5 catches for 56 yards on 7 targets. There is no doubt that Rodgers is going to feed Adams the rock tonight, and I’m willing to bet he could secure 3 or 4 receptions on their first drive.

Jeff Okudah, Detroit’s best corner, is out for the season and now there are holes everywhere in this Lions defense. Adams could legitimately put 150 yards on 10 catches and have 2 scores tonight. I’m expecting a huge performance, although it is not a system play.

Jmack Predicts- Davante Adams OVER 7.5 receptions

Conclusion

That is all for today folks. Kind of a bad night for the MLB and I might honestly stay away from it entirely, but I do like what I’m seeing in tonight’s NFL game.

Let’s win some more money!

Jmack