September 17/18, 2021 NCAA Football
Started running the numbers for tomorrow’s NCAA games and realized that Maryland plays tonight and it is a 3-star play, so I figured I would send this portion of the newsletter out now rather than wait until tomorrow.
NCAA Football Plays
Maryland @ Illinois
I truly can’t believe that this game is only a 7 point spread in favor of Maryland. Illinois is not a very impressive football team and I think we see the Terps run all over them.
Some of the data is skewed because Maryland played Howard last week and won 62-0, but nobody should overlook the fact that this Maryland team is surprisingly good all around. Maryland ranks 18th in total yards, 19th in passing yards, 70th in rushing yards and is 12th in points per game while Illinois only cracks the top 120 in one of those categories (ranked 97th in points per game). The gap in those areas is rather large regardless of what teams they have played, and the fact that Maryland is outscoring Illinois 92-74 this season when they have played one less game is something that really caught my eye.
The numbers on defense favor the Terps considerably as well, mainly because they shutout Howard last week, but they also only gave up 24 points against a decent West Virginia team. On the other hand, Illinois has given up 22 points to Nebraska, 37 to UTSA, and 42 to Virginia, all of which are not nearly as good as this Maryland squad is on offense.
The only reason this total is up at 61.5 points is because of Maryland’s 62 point win against Howard, and I don’t think we see the score go above 55. This line is confusing to me because 7 points is not a lot in college football, but the total is high enough to where it looks like Vegas thinks this could be a blowout. I agree with the system that Maryland covers in this one and the under hits, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Terps win by 14 or more.
System Predicts- Maryland -7, UNDER 61.5
Kent State @ Iowa
The Kent State offense played very well against VMI last week, but so does everybody. In week 1 they played Texas A&M and lost the game 41-10, and I think we are likely to see that kind of score in this game today.
The Iowa defense has been absurd to start the year and their dominance should continue today. In the first two weeks of the season they have gone up against Indiana and Iowa State, two teams that were ranked within the top 20 at some point this season, and Iowa State still is. In those 2 games, the Hawkeyes have given up just 23 points total and have practically shut down everything that has come their way.
This is another instance of where I think the over/under is set a few points too high. In week 1 against Texas A&M, Kent State only threw for 110 passing yards and last week they threw for just 146. The Golden Flashes do a majority of their work on the ground where they are averaging 360 yards per game, but Iowa is giving up just 82 rush yards per game and I think they are much more likely to stand tall tomorrow.
Kent State has shown they can not move the ball through the air and the only way the ball gets up the field is on the ground, and Iowa is one of the best rush defenses in all of college football. This game feels like a 30 point win for the Hawkeyes, but one that still stays below 56 points.
System Predicts- Iowa -22.5, UNDER 56
Cincinnati @ Indiana
Whether you like it or not, the Bearcats of Cincinnati have been a legit football for the past 2 or so years. They have not faced much of a test so far and Indiana is hands down their best competition up to this point in the season, but this is a challenge that Cincy is more than capable of handling.
Indiana’s performance against Iowa in week 1 really worries me, especially when they have to face another ranked opponent. Michael Penix only threw for 156 yards and had 3 interceptions in that game, and I’m willing to bet he struggles again against a defense that has only allowed 129 passing yards through the first two weeks of the season.
I truly don’t think Indiana’s offense is impressive at all, and when the QB is struggling you better be able to make up for it on the ground and they don’t do that well either (128 rushing yards per game- 154th in NCAA). I agree with the system that the Bearcats win and cover tomorrow, but I would stay away from the under even though I originally gave it two stars.
System Predicts- Cincinnati -3.5, OVER 49.5
NCAA Parlay
Cincinnati -3.5, Iowa/Kent State UNDER
ODDS: +265
Conclusion
That is all I have for this weekends NCAA write up. I figured I would send it out today because of the Maryland game being tonight, but I’ll send out a reminder tomorrow morning so that everyone gets a chance to look at it again.
Jmack