Yesterday’s MLB Recap
Yesterday started out as a great day for the system, but it cooled just as quickly as it got hot. At the end of the night it finished with an overall record of 15-15, splitting the predictions right down the middle.
3-star plays were in a similar boat and finished the night 1-1. The Indians took care of business against a bad Texas Rangers team, winning that game by a score of 9-6. However, after beating some very good teams to put themselves in contention for a wild card spot, the Mariners lost 2-1 to the Angels in a game that didn’t see much offense.
Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.
Today we have predictions for every MLB game that is scheduled and have predictions for 6 NCAA games, which should make for an exciting day. Let’s get right into it and see what we have in store for today.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to show their dominance and prove why they are the #1 overall seed going into the playoffs. I do like Tampa to win this game outright just like they did last night, however, I’m more focused on the under in this matchup.
Today we get to see a great battle on the mound and as a result I agree with the system that we see a low scoring final total. 22 year old stud Shane Baz (2-0 record, 1.69 ERA) will get the start today for the Rays and he has been great and has capitalized on every opportunity he has been given in his short MLB career. Baz has only pitched a total of 12.2 innings since coming up from the minors a few weeks ago, but in that span he has given up just 3 runs and 6 total hits, making him a great option going forward for this Rays team. Jordan Montgomery (6-6 record, 3.49 ERA) gets the start for New York and he has put together a nice little run recently. Montgomery has given up just 3 runs in his last 16.1 innings and he has pitched well against Tampa this season, giving up just 2 runs in his last 17.2 innings against them.
Montgomerys’ xERA is a little high at 4.09 when compared to his actual ERA of 3.49, which shows that he could be a little vulnerable today against a good Tampa offense. However, he’s put together a large sample size against this team and has done well this season against them, giving me a lot of confidence in him today. There is no doubt that Baz is going to do his job today and I think Montgomery follows in his footsteps, which should keep this total under 9 runs.
System Predicts- Rays ML, UNDER 9
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
On paper this looks like a game where we would see the under, however, the season series between the Blue Jays and the Orioles has seen several high scoring affairs and I simply think 8.5 runs is too low.
Since both teams are in the AL East, they face off quite often so the sample size we are dealing with is rather large. So far this season these teams have played 17 games against each other, with the combined total going over 8.5 runs in 14 of those 17 games. Furthermore, in the last 5 games between the Jays and Orioles, there have been a total of 82 runs scored which averages out to 16.4 runs per game.
The pitching matchup is great in this one, but I wouldn’t let that scare anyone away. Alek Manoah (8-2 record, 3.35 ERA) gets the start for Toronto and his xERA of 3.51 is right next to his actual ERA, suggesting that he likely won’t be giving up too many runs today. But, he has been a little vulnerable against Baltimore this season. He’s pitched just 9.1 innings against the O’s this year, but in that span he has given up 6 runs. John Means (6-8 record, 3.32 ERA) will start for Baltimore and his xERA of 3.94 suggests that he can be had, and I expect a Toronto team that ranks 2nd in hits and 3rd in runs scored to take advantage of Means and a Baltimore team that gives up the most runs per game in the MLB this season.
Scoring more than 8.5 runs in 82.4% of the games that these two teams have played is simply too high of a number to ignore and I agree with the system that we likely see another double digit total in this one.
System Predicts- Blue Jays -1.5, OVER 8.5
Daily Parlay- Rays/Yankees UNDER, Blue Jays/Orioles OVER
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech smacked North Carolina last week which makes me slightly hesitant to take the Panthers on the road in this spot. However, if Pitt didn’t lose to Western Michigan in week 3 they would be the talk of the ACC and it would be for good reason.
They have played some cake walk teams in UMASS and New Hampshire, but Pitt went on the road and beat Tennessee and I think we are likely to see a similar outcome today. Like I just mentioned, I’m not too focused on the spread in this matchup, but the over is looking like a great option.
The Pittsburgh offense is actually really good this year and should not be taken lightly. The Panthers rank 5th in the NCAA in total yards per game (560.3), 7th in passing yards (386.5), and 2nd in points per game (52.5). A lot of it is due to great quarterback play from Kenny Pickett, who has completed 75% of his passes, has a touchdown to interception ratio of 15:1, and a QB rating of 195.6, and I think he takes care of business against a pretty good Georgia Tech defense today.
The Yellow Jackets haven’t gotten nearly the same level of production on the offensive side of the ball when compared to Pitt but they still move the ball up the field well, particularly on the ground where they averaging 200 yards per game. Georgia Tech is also averaging 29.8 points per game and that number increases to 37 points per game while they are at home, giving this game shootout potential from the very first snap.
Several people have been putting a large focus on the Georgia Tech/Clemson game, which ended with a score of 14-8, as a reason to take the under here. However, I think that is more of a reflection of Clemson’s bad offense than Georgia Tech having a top tier defense. Both teams know how to find the end zone and I think we could easily see upwards of 70 points in this matchup.
System Predicts- Pittsburgh -3, OVER 58
Arizona State @ UCLA
I figured I’d toss in a late night matchup into the mix today, and once again I think the total is what everyone should be looking at here.
I’d stay away for the prediction of UCLA -3 today because their defense has been getting carved up. They are only allowing 64 yards per game on the ground which ranks 12th in the NCAA but they have not proven they can stop the pass and are giving up 330 yards per game through the air and a total of 410 yards per game, and that simply isn’t going to fly against an ASU team that is averaging 447 yards per game.
However, the Bruins do make up for their faults on defense with their offense. They average almost 200 rushing yards per game and a total of 445 yards per game, proving that the offense is a well-oiled machine. Plus, UCLA is scoring 38.5 points per game through 4 weeks, which ranks them inside the top 25 in the NCAA. Arizona State is right there with them too, averaging 32.5 points per game so far.
The Sun Devil defense is really good and could cause problems for the Bruins today, but I have confidence in UCLA to take control of this game on their home turf. The Bruin defense is going to get carved up again, but the offense is more than capable of taking the punches and responding with points of their own which should lead to a high scoring game.
System Predicts- UCLA -3, OVER 55.5
Over Parlay- Pitt/Georgia Tech OVER, UCLA/ASU OVER
That’s all I got for today folks. We got a busy day on our hands, but hopefully it comes with lots of wins.
Let’s make some money!