August 31, 2022 MLB Game Predictions

Yesterday’s MLB Recap

Yesterday was another good day for the model, as it finished with a record of 17-13 across the 30 predictions that it made.

However, 3- star plays were just 1-2 on the night, putting a damper on what turned out to be a great night overall.

Those plays started out hot, as the Orioles and Guardians combined for six runs and hit the under rather easily, although there were some points in the game where it looked like things might go south.

However, the Nationals and Athletics decided they were going to hit the ball for once, as the teams combined for 16 runs and 24 hits. The under was dead in the top of the third inning as 10 runs were already scored by that time, which was quite the surprise.

Another surprise was Aaron Nola getting hit around. After coming off of a complete game shut out in his last start, Nola allowed the Diamondbacks to get 10 hits and eight runs in just 4.0 innings. Those eight runs are the most that Nola has given up in a game since 2016, and of course it happens on the night that the Phillies were a 3-star play.

Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.

Today we have 14 total games with predictions. There are 15 MLB games today, but at the time of writing there are no lines available for the Cubs/Blue Jays game, but the model has predictions for every other game.

There are two 3-star plays on this Wednesday slate, and just a heads up the model likes the over in almost every game today. That is a little worrisome, but crazier things have happened so I guess a bunch of high scoring games isn’t totally out of the equation.

Let’s see what today’s predictions are.

MLB Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

This series has been all over the place, seeing the Cardinals win by nine runs in game one and then the Reds win by four runs in game two. Despite the large gap in talent, this game could go either way when it comes to who is going to win outright. However, the over is lining up to be a great play.

A total of 9.5 runs is rather steep, especially when two division rivals are facing off. But, we’ve already seen St. Louis score double-digit runs by themselves one time this series, and today looks like they might get that opportunity one more time.

Mike Minor (3-10 record, 6.10 ERA) is set to make the start for the Reds, which will put the over in a great position from the first pitch. In his last four starts, Minor has pitched a total of 23.0 innings and has posted an ERA of 5.87 and a WHIP of 1.47, and as a result those four games have seen an average of 9.75 total runs scored between the Reds and their opponent.

Furthermore, Minor has made one appearance this season against the Cardinals, a game in which he pitched 4.0 innings and allowed five earned runs on eight hits. Teams have been able to get the bat on the ball and pour the runs on when Minor is on the mound, and having to go up against a Cardinals team that is ranked third in runs scored per game (4.9) and sixth in hits per game (8.8) will likely pose some problems for the struggling pitcher.

José Quintana (4-6 record, 3.45 ERA) will be starting for St. Louis, and in his last five starts he has not allowed more than two earned runs. Overall, he has been great on the mound, but in that stretch Quintana has posted a WHIP of 1.65. That shows that opponents are getting on base against Quintana, and it is likely that the Reds will be able to keep that trend going after finding some momentum during yesterday’s game.

In addition, Quintana’s last five starts have seen an average of 11.4 total runs scored, with none of those games seeing fewer than nine runs.

Four of the last seven games between the Reds and Cardinals have seen a double-digit run total, with six of those seven seeing at least nine runs. Combining two pitchers in Minor and Quintana that are vulnerable to allowing baserunners will bode well for the over in this game, and I expect to see the high scoring trend between St. Louis and Cincinnati continue tonight.

Model Predicts- Reds +1.5, OVER 9.5

The Play- OVER 9.5

Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves

Things looked like they had a chance of getting out of hand in game one of this series. The Braves jumped all over struggling pitcher Jose Urena, taking an early 2-0 lead. However, that would be the only runs that Atlanta would score, and the Braves would eventually go on to lose 3-2 despite getting a decent performance on the mound from Max Fried.

It was quite the surprise, but last night was a bit of a fluke. As a result, I like this spot is a good bounce back opportunity for the Braves, and I expect them to take advantage of it and win big.

The Rockies rank amongst the MLB’s best when it comes to offensive performance. However, Colorado does most of its damage at home, and when they are on the road the Rockies turn into a completely different team.

The Rockies rank number one in the MLB in runs scored per game while they are at home with 5.69, which is nearly 0.3 more runs on average than the Dodgers in second place. However, once the Rockies hit the road they average just 3.08 runs per game, which ranks second to last in the MLB in front of only the Tigers.

The same remains true when it comes to overall batting average. Colorado ranks number one in the MLB in batting average at home with .286, but while on the road their team batting average drops down to .235.

Simply put, the Rockies struggle to hit the baseball while on the road this season, and that has remained true in their most recent eight games on the road. Colorado has scored just 16 total runs in that eight game stretch, and is only averaging 7.1 hits per game, which is far below their average of 9.84 hits per game while playing at Coors Field this season.

In addition, Colorado will start Ryan Feltner (2-5 record, 5.87 ERA), another guy that gives Atlanta a great opportunity to create some separation. Feltner has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts, and in that stretch has posted a WHIP of 1.54. Four of those matchups have seen Colorado’s opponent win by at least two runs, which is a great sign for the Braves run line today.

Atlanta will counter Feltner with Kyle Wright (16-5 record, 2.99 ERA). Over his last three starts, Wright owns an ERA of 1.42 and the Braves have covered the -1.5 run line in all three of those games, winning by an average of 6.67 runs.

I wouldn’t let yesterday’s result impact how you go about betting the Braves today. They are the far better team and have the advantage on the mound and at the plate. I expect them to bounce back and win by three or four runs.

Model Predicts- Braves -1.5, OVER 8

The Play- Braves -1.5

Conclusion

That is all for today’s write-up. I’m hoping to get back on track with the 3-star plays, so I thought scaling it back to just two for today would give us the best opportunity to do so.

Let’s have a good one!

Jmack