August 30, 2022 MLB Game Predictions
Yesterday’s MLB Recap
Last night turned out to be a good night for the model, finishing with a record of 9-6-1 and seeing the 3-star predictions go 1-1 overall.
The Twins took care of business against the Red Sox, winning the game 4-2 and securing the model at least one 3-star win, but the story was much different for the Dodgers.
Tony Gonsolin was placed on the IL almost immediately after publishing yesterday’s newsletter, and there was no prior news about any sort of injury that he was dealing with. That meant that he was no longer going to start and the ball got handed over to Michael Grove, which essentially destroyed the run line’s chances of hitting. The game did end up going to extra innings, but LA only scored one more run and the game ended 3-2.
Yesterday’s MLB chart is attached below.
Today we have a massive slate of games on our hands, which has resulted in 30 total predictions from the model. Three of those predictions were deemed 3-star plays, and hopefully none of those predictions come with any sort of breaking news that hurts their chances of hitting this time around.
Let’s see what today’s predictions are.
MLB Predictions
Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians
The AL Central leading Cleveland Guardians return home today after a six-game West Coast road trip to take on the Baltimore Orioles. Cleveland went just 3-3 overall on that roadtrip, but there was one common theme during that stretch of games that I think will likely remain in place in this game.
The trend for Cleveland was participating in low scoring games, and as a result the under has hit with tons of consistency as of late. During their six game road-trip, the Guardians never saw more than seven combined runs scored between them and their opponent, and if you look back at their last ten games there have been seven runs or less scored in nine of them.
Cal Quantrill (10-5 record, 3.59 ERA) is going to get the start for Cleveland, a great pitcher to have on the mound when betting the under. Quantrill was getting lit up after the All-Star break, but has since regained his composure and has pitched at least 6.0 shut out innings in three of his last four starts, and Cleveland would go on to shut out their opponent in two of those games. Three of those matchups finished with less than 8.5 runs, which is another trend that works in the under’s favor today.
Similarly, Baltimore has found themselves in low scoring contests quite often in the last two weeks or so. In their most recent 12 games, the Orioles and their opponent have combined for eight runs or less in 11 of those contests. Spenser Watkins (4-4 record, 3.96 ERA) has been a part of two of those matchups and will get the start today, so I like that trend to continue as well.
The bats haven’t been working well for either one of these teams lately, but their pitching has been beyond fantastic. Even if Quantrill and Watkins run into some trouble, the bullpens for both squads, which both rank in the top 5 in ERA and top 8 in WHIP, should be able to slow down any momentum and keep this game low scoring.
Lastly, the under has hit in 52.5% of Guardians games and 53.3% of Orioles games. Everything is pointing towards the under today, and I think it is a good play to back.
Model Predicts- Guardians ML, UNDER 8.5
The Play- UNDER 8.5
Oakland Athletics @ Washington Nationals
This is an ugly matchup, but it is one that contains value in the total.
Oakland and Washington are brutally bad when it comes to hitting the baseball, and that is why I think this should be another matchup in which the under should be targeted.
Coming into this matchup, the A’s score just 3.4 runs per game (29th in MLB) and Washington scores just 3.7 (26th in MLB). The Nationals have a significantly better batting average (.246) than Oakland (.215), but that has clearly not translated to putting runs on the board.
On the surface this is a friendly matchup for Washington, but I’m willing to bet that runs will still be hard for them to come by today. Cole Irvin (6-11 record, 3.16 ERA) is going to get the start today, and don’t let his record trick you because he has been great on the mound this season.
As I mentioned a few days ago, a pitcher’s record in baseball often reflects when he was on the mound, not how well he pitched when he was on the mound. I’ve already mentioned how bad of an offensive team the A’s are, and the reason Irvin has just six wins this year is because he gets no run support despite holding his opponents in check. Irvin enters this matchup owning the 16th best WHIP in the MLB at 1.03, and he has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last ten starts, seven of which have seen a combined total of less than 8.5 runs after nine innings.
Erick Fedde (5-8 record, 4.88 ERA) has been far from impressive this season for the Nationals, but this will be a great matchup for him to improve on his numbers. In the grand scheme of things Fedde has not pitched well, but similar to Irvin he has given up two earned runs or less in five of his last seven starts.
We have two offensively challenged teams squaring off in this one, and the matchup on the mound will likely help that trend to continue. I would stay away from the A’s money line, but this is a great game to back the under, which has hit in 58.3% of games in which Oakland is on the road and 52.3% of games in which Washington is at home.
Model Predicts- Athletics ML, UNDER 8.5
The Play- UNDER 8.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
The Phillies jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead last night against Arizona, but that blew up rather quickly and the Diamondbacks ended up winning the game 13-7. Ranger Suarez fell apart and the Phillies bullpen made matters much worse in what was a huge collapse.
However, Philadelphia has the luxury of starting Aaron Nola (9-10 record, 3.08 ERA), who has been one of the league’s best pitchers this season. Nola is coming off of a complete game shut out in his last start against the Reds, and prior to that he allowed just eight earned runs in his last 25.0 innings. He should be able to shut down a Diamondbacks offense that many people are high on after last night’s performance.
On the other side, Arizona will start Zac Gallen (9-2 record, 2.66 ERA), which could potentially turn this game into one of the best pitching duels of the season. Gallen has been nearly perfect in the month of August, and as a result has given up zero earned runs and just 12 hits in his last 27.1 innings.
However, Gallen’s last 27.1 innings have come against the Royals, Giants, Rockies, and Pirates, all of whom are well outside of playoff contention have been offenses with tremendous inconsistencies. I’m not trying to take anything away from Gallen, but his schedule has been a walk in the park recently not just because he is a stud, but also because he has faced bad teams.
In addition, Gallen has one start this year already against the Phillies, a game in which he pitched just 1.2 innings and allowed four earned runs and eight baserunners.
Philadelphia jumped on Arizona quickly last night, and if it wasn’t for the bullpen falling apart then it would have been an easy win. With Nola on the mound tonight, it is likely we will only see the Phillies bullpen for an inning, and potentially not at all.
I think it is more likely that Philly gets runs off of Gallen than Arizona does off of Nola. I would avoid taking the over like the model is predicting, but this is a great bounce back opportunity for the Phillies and I expect them to capitalize.
Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 7.5
The Play- Phillies ML
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. Yesterday was a good day overall even though the model split the 3-star plays, and hopefully we can keep it that way while 3-stars go undefeated.
Let’s have a good one!
Jmack