August 29, 2022 MLB Game Predictions
The last few days from the model have been sub-par at best. 3-star plays have managed to hold their ground and produce a profit, but overall the model has produced three of four losing days in a row.
That’s likely to happen when it is predicting 30 different outcomes in one given night for several days in a row, which is why I implemented the star system to help everyone sift through the good and bad predictions that are made.
With that being said, I took the day off yesterday to make some more preparations for today, and hopefully we are able to see some more success from the model.
Let's see what the model is predicting for today’s eight-game slate.
MLB Game Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
The Dodgers continue to assert their dominance on all of their opponents. LA is now 88-38 on the season and has won two out of three games in this series up to this point, and I think it is likely we see them win their third when it is all said in done tonight.
Through three games, the Dodgers have managed to outscore the Marlins 19-9, and in the season series LA has outscored Miami 38-13. That has led them a record of 5-1 in the season series between them and the Marlins, and they have covered the -1.5 run line in four of those six games.
They essentially have every advantage imaginable. On top of having tremendous hitters in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, and Will Smith, the pitching staff has been terrific and has been a source of havoc for their opponents.
Today we will see Tony Gonsolin (16-1 record, 2.10 ERA) begin this game on the mound for LA, and as seen by his numbers, this guy just knows how to win baseball games. Gonsolin did hit a rough patch right after the All-Star break, but has since been great on the mound. In his last four starts, he has pitched a total of 23.2 innings and has posted an ERA of 0.78 and a WHIP of 0.73, both of which somehow improve on his already stellar season numbers.
However, the same can’t be said about Pablo López (8-8 record, 3.66 ERA), who has been all over the place when he is on the mound. In his last start against Oakland López pitched 6.0 shut out innings, but in three starts prior to that he allowed 12 earned runs across 15.2 innings and posted a WHIP of 1.58. The A’s presented López with a much easier matchup, and I think it is likely we see him fall back towards his season averages in this one against a much better hitting team in the Dodgers.
LA has yet to face López this season, but they have managed to take care of business against Miami’s pitchers (with the exception being Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara). LA is averaging 12 hits per game in this series and giving themselves plenty of chances of score, while Miami is averaging just 5.33 hits per game. The skill gap is quite obvious in this one, and I don’t think the Dodgers will have any problems against López, and Gonsolin will continue to be an ace and help the Dodgers win big.
Model Predicts- Dodgers -1.5, OVER 7
The Play- Dodgers -1.5
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins
After being swept by the Blue Jays last week, the Red Sox recovered nicely and stole two out of three games against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Rays. However, the Red Sox have been disappointing all season, and I don’t think their new-found momentum is going to carry over into this series versus the Twins.
The main reason I say that is because I am skeptical of the Boston pitching staff. Brayan Bello (0-3 record, 7.36 ERA) is listed as the starter in this one, and nothing goes right for Boston when he is on the mound this season.
Bello has pitched just 22.0 innings and has made three starts, and it has been quite the rollercoaster for the 23 year old. He has given up at least two earned runs in every appearance he has made this season, with the exception being when he pitched 0.2 innings against Houston and did not surrender a run. Every start he has made has resulted in a loss, and in those losses the Red Sox have lost the game by an average of four runs.
Perhaps the most alarming stat of Bello’s is his WHIP, which currently sits at 2.09. The MLB average is 1.27, so the fact that he is allowing almost one more baserunner per inning than most MLB pitchers shows how vulnerable this guy has been. Bello has yet to have pitched more than 5.0 innings in any game, but has still allowed an average of 8.6 baserunners per game when he is on the mound, giving his opponents plenty of chances to score runs.
Even when Bello inevitably comes out of the game, Boston won’t be in the clear as their bullpen has an ERA of 4.54 (4th worst in MLB) and a WHIP of 1.35 (7th worst in MLB).
Things get slightly better for the Twins in regard to the pitching situation. Dylan Bundy (7-6 record, 4.56 ERA) will get the start, and although his overall numbers aren’t great, he has allowed just five earned runs in his last four starts (19.1 total innings). He has made one appearance already against the Sox this season, which saw him pitch 5.1 innings and give up just one run while the Twins won the game 8-3.
Both teams enter this matchup with some momentum, as Minnesota recently swept San Francisco and as previously mentioned Boston took two out of three games against Tampa Bay. However, the Twins have far more stability and have played excellent baseball at home this year, where they 38-28 overall. Boston and Minnesota are on the outside of the playoff hunt as of right now, but the Twins are in a far better position and I like them to extend their winning streak to four games tonight as they look to get closer to the postseason.
Model Predicts- Twins ML, UNDER 8.5
The Play- Twins ML
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. A smaller slate of games should ease us into the week, and hopefully we are able to have some things work in our favor and grab some wins.
Let’s have a good day!
Jmack