April 27, 2023 NBA, MLB, and NHL Predictions
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Once again don’t have much time on my hands this morning so today’s newsletter won’t be in-depth, but there are two 3-star plays today. Both of those are in the MLB.
The models have ben getting crushed in the playoffs so far. No. 8 seeds are beating No. 1 seed in dominant fashion, and just when it looks like on team is going to close the door and win the series the opponent seems to always stick around. Luckily 3-star plays are keeping tings afloat for now, but it would be nice to see the models get back to posting winning records across all categories like they were in the regular season.
Also, SportSense will be changing newsletter platforms shortly. That was brought up a while ago and has been in the works for a bit, but now it makes sense to start making the transition. The new platform will allow the newsletter to go beyond just 3-star plays and become more like a real newsletter that will also dive into injuries, trends, news around the league, and some other fun things.
SportSense will also have an official website coming the near future, so the newsletter transition will coincide with that launch.
Now, let’s look at today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
Staying far away from the NBA today. Boston lost Game 5 at home and based on what we have seen in the playoffs I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this one by 30 points. None of today’s predictions are worth the risk in my eyes.
MLB Predictions
Some of today’s win percentages (Marlins/Braves, Dodgers/Pirates) are favoring the underdog much more than the books are. That could mean there is value on those underdogs, but once again it is leaning that way because of some pitchers getting lit up once and skewing their ERA’s much higher due to only pitching a few innings in the young season.
Today’s 3-star plays are below.
Cardinals/Giants Over 8.5
Over is 2-1 in the series
Cardinals pitcher is Miles Mikolas (7.46 ERA, 1.89 WHIP). Mikolas has allowed at least three earned runs in all five of his starts this season, with three of those five starts seeing five earned runs or more.
Mikolas doesn’t walk many batters (4.4% Walk Rate), but he ranks in the sixth percentile in Whiff %, 25th percentile in strikeout %, and 19th percentile in Barrel %. Batters are hitting the ball quite often against Mikolas.
Giants starter is Logan Webb (4.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). Webb has a great WHIP because he ranks in the 93rd percentile of Walk % and 85th percentile in strikeout %. However, Webb is having a hard time keeping the ball in the ballpark. Per Baseball Savant Webb owns a Barrel % of 9.9%, more than 4.0% higher than any other year of his career. Webb also ranks below the bottom 50% of the MLB in Hard Hit %.
That could pose a problem today against a Cardinals team that owns a Barrel % of 9.4% and a Hard Hit % of 43.1%. The MLB average Barrel % is 8.2% and the Hard Hit % is 39.2%. St. Louis also ranks 4th in hits and 11th in Home Runs.
Model Predicts- Giants ML, OVER 8.5
The Play- OVER 8.5
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
Gerrit Cole is on the mound today, making the under a great play.
Cole owns an ERA of 0.79 through five starts. No team has scored more than two runs in any game that Cole is the starting pitcher, averaging just 1.2 runs per game.
Texas is a great offensive team, but Cole is on another level on the mound. He should shut down the Texas hitting attack today, and even if New York jumps on Heaney I don’t expect it to be enough to push this total over 8.
Model Predicts- Yankees ML, UNDER 8
The Play- UNDER 8
NHL Predictions
Talk about unpredictable. Staying away from the NHL today as well.
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. Let’s have a good one!