April 25, 2023 NBA, MLB, and NHL Game Predictions
Can Atlanta cover against Boston? Is there value on Pittsburgh as a home underdog?
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Yesterday’s Model Recap
Didn’t have time this morning. todoa full recap, but yesterday was a day of mixed results. The NBA model nearly posted a perfect record by going 5-1 on the night, with the only loss being Bucks money line. However, the NHL and MLB models fell behind a bit, mostly due to some late period/inning comebacks.
3-star plays were 2-0 on the day though which was great to see, and those plays are now 3-0 to begin the MLB season.
Today we have model predictions for every NBA and NHL game that is scheduled to take place, but we only have nine MLB games with predictions because some lines aren’t available yet or there are gaps in the data. Two of today’s predictions are 3-stars.
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Now, let’s get into today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
The seven-game series between the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics will return to TD Garden on Tuesday as the Celtics look to close out the series.
Atlanta hasn't been able to get much done against Boston through four games, entering this matchup down 3-1 in the series. The Hawks are now 1-5 against the Celtics when including their two losses to Boston in the regular season.
All series long Boston has proven why it is the No.2 seed in the Eastern Conference and worthy of returning to the NBA Finals. Will the Celtics close things out at home, or do the Hawks still have some fight left in them? Let's dive into the matchup and make a betting pick for Game 5 of the Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics series.
After taking care of the Miami Heat in the Play-In tournament it appeared that Atlanta could make things interesting in Round 1.
However, we soon found out the Celtics are a much tougher task compared to the Heat, giving Atlanta trouble on both ends.
Atlanta's offense has fallen flat through four games, posting a 109.9 Offensive Rating this series. That ranks 11th amongst the 16 playoff teams, and it is a 5.6-point drop from Atlanta's seventh best Offensive Rating of 115.5 in the regular season.
The drop in offensive production is a result of Atlanta's inability to shoot the three-ball. The Hawks have shot just 33.8% from behind the arc in the series, oftentimes failing to match one of Boston's biggest strengths.
To make matters more complicated, Dejounte Murray will face a one-game suspension for making contact with a referee in Game 4, putting him on the sidelines for Game 5. Murray is averaging 25.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists this series.
On the other end of the floor we have the Boston Celtics, a team with redemption on its mind after losing in the NBA Finals last season. Boston responded to that loss by dominating the regular season, and that dominance has followed the Celtics into the postseason.
The difference maker for Boston this season was its play on the defensive end. The Celtics posted the second best Defensive Rating this season with a 110.6, just 0.7 points behind Cleveland in first. That rating improved to 108.7 when Boston was the home team, making the Celtics a tough team to beat when they have home court advantage.
That defense has given Boston a significant advantage in this series. In Games 1 and 2 we saw Boston post a Defensive Rating of 100.5, holding Atlanta to shooting 40.7% overall and 27.3% from behind the arc, per NBA.com.
As a result, the Celtics own a point differential of +26 in the series. That has come from winning both home games by 13 points and splitting the two games they played on the road, losing Game 3 by eight and winning Game 4 by the same margin.
The absence of Murray is concerning for Atlanta's chances to win this matchup. However, I think a spread of 13.5 points is slightly high.
Murray missed eight games during the regular season. Atlanta managed to post a 118.1 Offensive Rating in those matchups, up from 117.3 in the 74 games he suited up for, per StatMuse. Atlanta averaged 119.8 points per game when Murray was absent. According to our model Murray is worth just over 2.0 points on the spread, and even without him on the floor the model projects the Celtics to win by roughly 11 points.
Boston has yet to win by more than 13 this series, and Atlanta has made some adjustments since losing by that margin early on. Even with Murray out, I think the Hawks can cover the spread here, but I would only play it down to 12.5.
Model Predicts- Hawks +13.5, UNDER 229.5
The Play- Hawks +13.5
MLB Predictions
There are some gaps in the data today which is why only nine games have predictions. As always it is till early on in the season and some pitchers don’t have many innings under their belts, so I would take most predictions with a grain of salt. Yesterday was a losing day overall, and we should probably expect to see a few more of those until every team gets into the swing of things.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Unfortunately I don’t have much time to write about this matchup, but today’s 3-star play is Pirates ML at +110.
The Pirates finished last season in the basement of the MLB, but are off to a red hot start in 2023. Pittsburgh owns a 16-7 record through 23 games, good enough to be the first place team in the NL Central.
Today Johan Oviedo will be on the mound for Pittsburgh. He owns a 2-1 record, 2.22 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP in four starts this season. Those numbers are great, and believe it or not they could be much lower if he didn’t allow five earned runs in his first start of the season. Since that game he owns an ERA of 0.94 and 0.94 WHIP.
Noah Syndergaard will be on the mound for Los Angeles. Syndergaard is 0-3 this season with an ERA of 4.91. He owns a WHIP of 1.23 which is due to his low walk rate (4.3%), but he is very vulnerable to contact and does not strikeout many batters or make them swing and miss. That could led to trouble against a Pirates team that ranks in the top 10% of the MLB in Hard Hit % (44.7%) and is well above the MLB average in several offensive metrics, per Baseball Savant.
Pittsburgh has the better pitcher in the matchup and has just played better baseball this season. I agree with the model that there is value in taking the Pirates as a home underdog.
Model Predicts- Pirates ML, OVER 8.5
The Play- Pirates ML
NHL Predictions
No 3-star plays in the NHL today. Some crazy things have happened this postseason, like Toronto coming back from down 4-1 in the third period last night, that make betting the NHL difficult. I also just don’t have time to take a deep dive into the stats and see where the value is.
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. I wish I could have gone into more depth about today’s MLB 3-star play, but hopefully the brief description was enough to at least see why I am leaning towards Pittsburgh.
Tomorrow I’ll be back with more predictions.
Let’s have a good one!
Jmack