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Yesterday’s Model Recap
Yesterday was a very average day. The NBA model ended with a .500 record, and the MLB model barely snuck above .500 in its season debut. 3-star plays were 1-1 on the day as well which sums up how our Sunday went.
You can read more about yesterday’s performance in the PDF below.
Today we have a handful of NBA and NHL games to look at, with a majority of today’s predictions coming in the MLB. Two of today’s predictions have been given 3-stars, and both of those are totals in the MLB.
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Our Model Track newsletter is sent out every Monday, which goes over the performance of each model for the season and prior week. I will be working on that today, but it might have to be sent out tomorrow.
Now, let’s get into today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
No 3-star plays in the NBA today. Playoff basketball has tough to get a read on so far, and tonight is no exception (at least for me).
The Bucks/Heat game scares me a bit now that Giannis is back in the lineup. That series has been strange as the over is 2-0-1 when most season metrics suggest a low scoring series, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see our first under of the series tonight. The Heat also have some players banged up, most notably Jimmy Butler, but I think it is safe to assume he will play and the model takes into account him suiting up. Either way, I’m staying away from that game.
The Grizzlies/Lakers matchup is one I had my eyes on the most. I am interested in backing the over at 221.5 as the model gives the over about a 60% chance of hitting.
Memphis scored nine points in the first quarter of Game 3 (that is not a typo), and the final total for the game ended at 212. The Lakers will likely put together a similar offensive output against a Grizzlies team that has struggled on the road (16-25 this season), and I have no doubt that Memphis will be able to have much better first quarter and come out the gates in much better form now that it is down 2-1 in the series.
I’m hesitant to take the Lakers on the spread though.
MLB Predictions
Since I’m sending this out late I will just give a few quick thoughts on today’s 3-star plays.
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will face off in an American League East rivalry to start off the week, the second series between the two teams this season. The model gives the Red Sox a slight edge here but gives the over a high probability of hitting, and I think that is a good way to lean.
The Red Sox and Orioles kicked off the MLB season in Fenway Park back on March 30th, the start of a three-game series. Those three games all saw very high run totals, with the average run total being 16.7 and the lowest total coming in at 14.
It was quite the display of offense, especially by Boston as the Sox scored nine runs in all three games.
Boston’s offensive attack has yet to slow down, entering today’s matchup ranked fourth in the MLB in runs per game with 5.74, per TeamRankings. That number drops ever so slightly to 5.70 on the road, but that mostly proves that this Red Sox team is one of the more consistent hitting teams in the MLB regardless of where they are playing.
Boston will get to face Dean Kremer this evening, the starting pitcher for Baltimore. Kremer started against Boston back on April 1st, a game in which he allowed five runs in just three innings of work.
Kremer followed that up with allowing four earned runs in each of his next two appearances against the Yankees and Athletics. He got back on track last week against the Nationals when he allowed zero runs in 6.2 innings, but it is hard to imagine he can string together a start like that against Boston.
One thing Kremer does do well though is limit walks. As seen in the chart below from Baseball Savant Kremer finds himself in the 62nd Percentile in Walk % at 8.3%, however, he struggles to strikeout many batters (19th percentile in K%). Kremer is also susceptible to allowing some hard hit balls, which could pose a problem against a strong Boston hitting attack.
In the other dugout we have the Baltimore Orioles, and offense that has gone a little cold recently. The Orioles have won six straight games, but in that span of time they have scored just 3.7 runs per game.
However, Baltimore will get to face Chris Sale today, a guy who has had a very up and down start to the season on the mound.
Sale got lit up the last time he faced the Orioles, allowing seven earned runs in just three innings. He then allowed eight earned runs in his next nine innings before finding his footing in his last start against Minnesota (6.0 innings, one earned run, 11 strikeouts).
Opposite of Kremer, Sale is very deceptive on the mound, ranking in the 92nd percentile in K% and 91st percentile in Whiff %. On the surface that doesn’t look great for Baltimore, but there are a few things working in the O’s favor.
Barrel % is a statistic that combines exit velocity with launch angle. In order for a ball to be considered “Barreled”, the exit velocity has be at least 98 mph and the launch angle between 26-30 degrees, with that range increasing with every mph about 98, per MLB.com.
The MLB average Barrel % this season comes in at 8.4%, but Baltimore’s is well above that at 9.4%. As seen in the chart above, Sale ranks in the 16th percentile of Barrel % at 12.8%, something that the Orioles can capitalize on once again. That is nearly 5% higher than it has been in any other year of his career.
The last time Kremer and Sale were on the mound we saw 13 runs in three innings. Baltimore and Boston also don’t rank very high in team ERA, with Baltimore sitting in 14th (4.12) and Boston in 26th (5.10), per TeamRankings. I think we are due for another high-scoring affair tonight.
Model Predicts- Red Sox ML, OVER 8
The Play- OVER 8
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
I won’t go into as much detail on this matchup since I want to send this out, but in this game the 3-star play is the under at 7.5 runs.
Minnesota will have Sonny Gray on the bump today. Gray has been excellent this season, posting an ERA of 0.82 and a 1.18 WHIP through 22.0 innings. He does struggle with walks a bit, but he makes up for it with his strikeouts.
Jhony Brito will get the start for New York. He owns an ERA of 5.40 this season, but that is pushed higher because of him allowing 7 runs in 0.2 innings in one start. He has allowed only two earned runs in the other 14.2 innings he has pitched this season.
Additionally, both Minnesota and New York struggle against right handed pitchers, which Gray and Brito are. Per StatMuse the Yankees rank 16th in OPS (.721) and Minnesota ranks 19th (.693) against righties.
Three of the four games played between the Yankees and Twins this season saw seven runs or less. The lone game that saw more was when Brito was on the mound for New York, but that poor outing is clearly an outlier based on what we have seen the rest of the season. Even if Brito gets into trouble again, he has the No.1 ranked bullpen in ERA (2.44) behind him.
Model Predicts- Twins ML, UNDER 7.5
The Play- UNDER 7.5
NHL Predictions
No 3-star plays in the NHL today, but the model is now adjusted for playoff performance.
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. Sending it much later than I would have liked, but hopefully it is still helpful for anyone looking to get in on some action tonight.
Let’s have a good one!
Jmack