April 23, 2023 NBA and MLB Game Predictions
Expect a bounce back game from Cleveland and another offensive explosion from the Rangers
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Yesterday’s Model Recap
Yesterday wasn’t a very exciting day. I didn’t have much time on my hands so I only ran the NBA model, and at the end of the night it ended up going 6-5-1 overall across the three categories. None of yesterday’s predictions was given 3-stars.
You can read more about yesterday’s performance in the PDF below.
Today there is once again no NHL model in the newsletter. I got caught up with the MLB model and didn’t have time to make some playoff adjustments, but that model will be back tomorrow.
However, there are still predictions for every NBA game scheduled to take place as well as predictions for 12 of the 15 MLB games that are scheduled on this lovely Sunday.
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Now, let’s get into today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
I’ve made some adjustments to the NBA model that now takes into account playoff data. It doesn’t really change anything when it comes to money line and spread predictions, but it now gives a much more realistic probability for the over/under predictions. The best example is the Cavaliers/Knicks over/under probability, which has fallen from roughly 75% in the first three games to 50.78% today.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
The Cleveland Cavaliers will face off against the New York Knicks in Game 4 of this best-of-seven series, a series in which New York leads 2-1.
Cleveland managed to win Game 2 and had the momentum when the series shifted cities to New York. However, the Cavaliers got dominated in every aspect of the game in Game 3, becoming the first team this season to not score 80 points in a game.
New York hasn’t looked great on the offensive end either, but the Knicks have played suffocating defense this series and have put themselves in the driver seat because of it.
Cleveland and New York have both been great defensively, but at some point one of these offenses is going to have a huge game. With their backs against the wall and in danger of going down 3-1 will we see the Cavaliers come back to life, or will New York step on their throats and go back to Cleveland having to win just one more game? Let’s take a deeper look and make a betting pick for this matchup.
As the No.4 seed in the Eastern Conference the Cleveland Cavaliers have high expectations for the postseason. Several offseason moves, most notably the Donovan Mitchell trade, had many believing Cleveland could be the favorite in the East, but through the first three-games of this series the Cavaliers have looked nothing like the team we saw in the regular season.
The biggest difference for Cleveland from the regular season to the postseason has come on the offensive end of the floor. As seen in the chart below the Cavaliers owned an Offensive Rating of 115.5 (8th best in NBA) during the regular season, but in their series with the Knicks that rating has fallen 14.8 points to 100.7 (last among playoff teams).
Such a significant drop is a result of a few factors, most notably Cleveland’s shooting efficiency. Per NBA.com the Cavaliers are shooting an abysmal 43.8% overall and 32.0% from behind the arc in this series. That combined with Cleveland’s slow pace of play, 94 offensive possessions per game, has led to just 94.3 points per game. That is down 18.0 points from the Cavs’ season average, a sign that this offense is in shambles.
Luckily Cleveland’s defense has stood tall this series, improving its Defensive Rating 7.4 points from its season rating. Cleveland was the No.1 defensive team in the league through 82 regular season games, and we have seen flashes of that in this series as New York has yet to score more than 101 points in any of the first three games. They look great on that end of the floor, which will continue to give them a chance to win this series.
On the other end of the floor we have the New York Knicks, a team that is loaded with talent and depth.
Jalen Brunson was the star for New York for most of the regular season and he has continued to fill that role in the playoffs. Through the first three games of this series Brunson has averaged 22.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists to go along with 2.7 steals, playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor.
If there is one flaw with Brunson though it is the shooting efficiency. He has shot 44% from the floor and has been a brick from behind the arc (12.5%) through three games, often forcing him to do all of his damage from mid-range.
Brunson is not the only Knick struggling to shoot the ball though. Per NBA.com the Knicks have shot 42.0% from the floor this series and an eyebrow-raising 27.5% from three. Both of those percentages rank in the bottom two of playoff teams, and as seen in the chart below are much lower than New York’s regular season averages.
All in all we have two defensive-minded teams that have dominated on that end of the floor all series, making another low-scoring game likely in this one.
However, I agree with the model that backing the Cavaliers on the spread this afternoon is a solid play, and I am willing to make it 3-stars.
It is impossible for the Cavaliers to play any worse than they did in Game 3. Nothing was clicking on the offensive end of the floor, but they still managed to hold New York in check on offense and once again held the Knicks to under 100 points.
Cleveland is easily the better defensive team, posting a Defensive Rating that was 4.3 points better than New York during the regular season. They have been just as suffocating as the Knicks, and I think the offense is due for a big turnaround today. That should allow for a close game to happen.
Model Predicts- Cavaliers +2.5, OVER 206.5
The Play- Cavaliers +2.5
MLB Predictions
MLB predictions are finally in the newsletter! We likely won’t have every game for every day for a little while longer as more data comes in, but most games will be included in the newsletter moving forward.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Today we are going to take a bit of a different route here. Instead of backing one of the money line, spread, or over/under predictions, we are going to take a look at a team run total. That team is the Texas Rangers, and their run total current sits at 4.5 on most sportsbooks while our model likes them to score nearly eight runs.
The Texas Rangers finished near the basement of the MLB last season, posting a 68-94 record and ending the season 38.0 games back of the Astros in their own division.
However, the Rangers appear to be the real deal in 2023, entering this matchup in first place in the American League West with a 13-7 record.
Texas added some key players to its pitching rotation in the offseason, most notably Jacob deGrom, but the biggest improvements for the Rangers have come at the plate.
According to TeamRankings Texas ranks sixth in the MLB in batting average at .260. That is up from last season’s average of .239, which ranked 16th in the league, and in the last three games that average has skyrocketed to .345. Texas has 38 total hits across that three-game span, which has led to 35 runs to be scored.
This Rangers team is on fire at the plate at the moment, and it will likely continue today against a bad Athletics team.
Kyle Muller (0-1 record, 7.23 ERA) is set to make the start for Oakland, a great matchup for Texas. Muller has allowed 14 earned runs in three starts this season, including 12 earned runs in his last 8.0 innings pitched.
Muller’s WHIP (Walks & Hits per Innings Pitched) currently sits at 1.93, showing that he is allowing tons of contact and it is often resulting in baserunners. As seen in the chart below from Baseball Savant Muller ranks towards the bottom of the MLB in several major categories, with the most concerning being his Strikeout % (K%) and Walk % (BB%). Muller ranks in the 12th percentile of K% and 44th percentile of BB%, showing that hitters are either making contact or Muller is just flat out missing the strike zone.
Another area of concern is Muller’s Whiff %, which ranks in the bottom 15% of the MLB this season. Hitters are not swinging and missing against him, and that can open up the flood gates for a ton of Rangers runs.
The Rangers have not hit left-handed pitchers all that well this year, hitting just .219 per ESPN. However, that is only from a sample size of 137 at bats while Texas has 537 at bats against righties, so it is tough to tell if the Rangers actually struggle or have just come out of the gates slow.
Either way, Muller has been vulnerable on the mound all year, and backing him up is a bullpen that ranks last in the MLB in ERA (7.13) and WHIP (1.68), per Covers. Yesterday we saw Texas scored 18 runs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them explode again today.
Model Predicts- Rangers -1.5, OVER 7
The Play- Rangers OVER 4.5 runs
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. It’s great to have the MLB model back in action, and hopefully it leads to some more winners for us!
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Let’s have a good one!
Jmack