April 22, 2023 NBA Game Predictions
Don’t have much time on my hands today as I would like to get some things done in regard to the newsletter and MLB model so there will only be NBA predictions today. None of today’s predictions have been given 3-stars, but I will have some notes on the predictions to help see why the model is making a particular prediction.
NBA Predictions
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets
No Joel Embiid today for Philadelphia. He hasn’t had the greatest series from a scoring standpoint, but his absence will help out Brooklyn a ton because the Nets have been getting dominated on the offensive glass and in second chance points all series.
Season on the line for Brooklyn. Think Brooklyn +2 is a decent play.
Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are both out again. Our model says that those two are worth 4.60 points on the spread, which is almost exactly what Vegas believes as well.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat
This prediction was made with the assumption that Giannis is out. He practiced a little bit yesterday, but he was no cleared for contact.
If he ends up playing then the model will shift more in favor of Milwaukee, but it will still predict the over and the Heat on the spread.
Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers
This predictions was made with the assumption that Ja Morant will play. He is a game time decision with a hand injury, but if he sits out then the model will like the Lakers to win even more.
Our model says Ja Morant is worth 1.8 points on the spread in today’s matchup, so if he sits it will predict the Lakers to win by 7.4 points. I think the spread on most books will be 6.5 or 7 if he is announced out.
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. Nothing special, but hopefully it helps.
I will be spending the day working on an adjustment for NBA over/under probabilities now that we have some playoff data under our belt, and I will look to add the finishing touches to the MLB model. Referrals will also be updated today and throughout the remainder of the weekend.
Let’s have a good one!
Jmack