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Yesterday’s Model Recap
Yesterday was a solid day as both the NBA and NHL models posted winning records. However, some bad luck struck in the Suns/Clippers game which made one of our 3-star plays (Under 227) lose, but that was made up for with tons of luck in the 76ers/Nets game which made our other 3-star play (76ers -4.5) a winner.
You can read more about yesterday’s performance in the PDF below.
Today we have some more NBA and NHL action to dive into, with one of today’s NBA predictions being a 3-star play.
I’ve also been getting a lot of questions about the status of the MLB model. I will spend some time today working on it and updating the data to see what everything looks like, but it may need some more time until every matchup is included in the newsletter.
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Now, let’s get into today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
The series between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves will switch cities on Friday night as the next two games will now be played in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
As the No.1 seed in the Western Conference Denver has the good fortune of home court advantage, and the Nuggets have not taken it for granted. The Nuggets own a 2-0 lead in this series, highlighted by its dominance on the offensive end.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have struggled on both ends of the floor, putting them in quite the hole as they try to prevent the Nuggets from going up 3-0.
On the surface this series doesn’t appear to be that close, but Minnesota proved during the regular season that it can hang with Denver, especially when the game takes place inside the Target Center. Will that remain the case now that the Timberwolves are the home team, or will the Nuggets continue to walk right through a weaker team?
The Denver Nuggets have started the postseason on the right foot, which shouldn’t be all that surprising as the Western Conference’s No.1 seed.
Denver finds itself up 2-0 for a variety of reasons, but perhaps none greater than its play on the offensive end of the floor. Per NBA.com Denver owns an Offensive Rating of 121.6 through the first two games of this series, the third best rating amongst the 16 teams in the postseason.
That level of offense is nothing new for this Nuggets team, one that has dominated its home court all season long. In 41 home games the Nuggets posted a 119.9 Offensive Rating, a number achieved by shooting 51.4% from the floor and 39.0% from three. That rating and the two percentages all ranked in the top two of the NBA, allowing Denver to post a 34-7 home record.
However, Denver’s numbers on the road are far from impressive when compared to its home statistics.
As seen in the chart below the Nuggets’ production on both ends of the floor tanks when away from the Mile High City. Their Offensive Rating slides 6.2 points to 113.7, a result of shooting 2.00% worse from the floor. That is accompanied by a 6.4-point increase in Defensive Rating, a result of opponents shooting 3.50% better against the Nuggets.
The Nuggets are a totally different team on the road, which is a cause for concern in this matchup.
On the other end of the floor we have the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team that has a lot of promise but has yet to show it this series.
Minnesota’s performance in Game 1 was miserable. The Timberwolves scored just 80 points while shooting 37% from the floor, 31% from three, and 56% from the free throw line. Those 80 points were the fewest that any NBA team has scored this season.
Minnesota did turn things around in Game 2, shooting 51% overall and 45% from behind the arc on its way to 113 points. That performance still resulted in a loss, but it was much more reflective of what we have seen the Timberwolves do against Denver this season.
According to NBA.com the Timberwolves posted an Offensive Rating of 118.4 in four regular season games against the Nuggets. That is a 5.1 point increase from Minnesota’s season rating of 113.3, and it is much higher than its rating of 103.2 this series. That shows that this offense has come nowhere close to its ceiling yet in the series.
Additionally, the Timberwolves are a perfect 2-0 against Denver while at home this season. In those two matchups Minnesota’s Offensive Rating rose to 125.4, leading to a point differential of +43 in those matchups. That once again proves that this squad matches up well with Denver and can take advantage of the Nuggets’ poor road splits.
All in all I think Minnesota is due for another solid home performance tonight against Denver. It is a bit of a tough sell given what has happened in this series so far, but returning home is all that Minnesota is going to need in my eyes.
However, the Timberwolves will still be without Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid for this matchup. If everyone was the healthy the model predicted Minnesota to win this game, but those two injuries move the spread roughly 3.14 points back towards Denver.
However, the model still only predicts Denver to win this game by roughly two points, making Timberwolves +2.5 a viable prediction.
Denver has been exposed on the road all season long, owning a road record of 19-22 and going just 10-16 against the spread as a road favorite, per TeamRankings. I think taking the Timberwolves on the spread is a great play here.
Model Predicts- Timberwolves +2.5, OVER 223
The Play- Timberwolves +2.5
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
There is no 3-star play in this matchup, but just a word of caution about the over.
The model is giving the over an 81% chance to hit. Anything above 70% raises some red flags for me, and that probability is so high because 211.5 is a very uncommon point total to see in an NBA game.
However, in six matchups this season the Knicks and Cavaliers have scored an average total of 208.5 points per game, so seeing a low total makes a lot of sense.
I’m not saying the over can’t hit, but the under is already 2-0 in this series and these are two of the more unreliable offensive teams in the league as bot go through some scoring droughts. This is a situation where the probability doesn’t tell the full story, so if you bet solely based on the percentages then I would not take the probability for the over with a grain of salt.
NHL Predictions
There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today. The predictions that I was eyeing up were over 5 in the Hurricanes/Islanders game the Bruins ML, but the odds for those predictions don’t provide great value.
I still might take a swing on both because a total of five goals is very low and I think the Bruins are the better team even with Swayman in net, but neither one is a 3-star play.
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. 3-star plays have done pretty well this week, so hopefully we get another strong performance tonight heading into the weekend.
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Let’s have a good one!
Jmack