April 20, 2023 NBA and NHL Game Predictions
Back the 76ers to cover the spread and expect the low scoring trend to continue in Los Angeles
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Yesterday’s Model Recap
No time for a full recap, but I’ve attached yesterday’s chart below for everyone to see. It was a solid day all around, with 3-star plays going 1-0 as well.
Today we have some more NBA and NHL action to dive into, with two of today’s predictions being given 3-stars. Both of those are in the NBA.
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Now, let’s get into today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets
The Philadelphia 76ers will make the short trip north to Brooklyn, New York to take on the Nets in Game 3 of this seven-game series.
Philadelphia has dominated Brooklyn in almost every aspect of the game through two contests, jumping out to a comfortable 2-0 series lead. The 76ers are now a perfect 6-0 against the Nets this season.
Brooklyn has managed to string together some solid individual performances, but ultimately has come up short in a matchup where it is outsized. Will the Nets be able to flip the script when they return home, or will Philadelphia grab its third win of the series? Let's take a look at the matchup and make a betting pick for 76ers vs Nets.
Game 1 of this series could not have gone any better for the 76ers. Philadelphia shot 47% from the floor overall, 49% from three, and 100% from the free throw line in that game, leading to 121 points and an easy 20-point victory.
Things weren't as easy in Game 2, but Philadelphia once again came out on top.
The 76ers saw a major drop in shooting efficiency in Game 2, shooting just 45.0% from the floor overall and 31.4% from three, per NBA.com. That allowed Brooklyn to hang around for a bit, even going into halftime up 49-44.
However, the Philadelphia defense made up for any lack of offensive firepower. The 76ers posted a 92.3 Defensive Rating in Game 2, highlighted by holding the Nets to just 35 points in the second half on 35.1% shooting.
The 76ers are an elite team on both ends of the floor, and even when things aren't clicking on one end they have proven time and time again it can be made up for in other areas of the game.
he Brooklyn Nets don't have much to hang their hats on through two games. Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson have each scored at least 28 points in one game this series to provide a small bright spot, but the rest of the Nets offense has fallen behind.
As a result, Brooklyn is averaging just 92.5 points through the first two games of this series. The shooting efficiency hasn't been bad, 46% overall and 37% from behind the arc, but Brooklyn is falling behind because of other deficiencies.
It's no secret that this Nets team suffers a significant height disadvantage against Philadelphia. That has made Brooklyn vulnerable on the offensive glass, posting a -17 offensive rebound differential through the first two games of this series.
Those offensive rebounds have led to 37 second chance points for Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has only managed three second chance points this series.
The struggles on the glass are nothing new for Brooklyn, as evidenced by allowing the third most offensive rebounds per game (11.5). That has proven to be the difference make in many games this season, and it might be what gives Brooklyn its third loss of the series.
The line for Game 2 of this series closed at Philadelphia -9.5. At the time of writing the line sits at Philadelphia -4.5, a 5.0-point swing simply because the stadium has changed.
Brooklyn has not shown that it can compete with Philadelphia at any point this season, and the significant disadvantage on the offensive glass puts them in a tough spot moving forward.
I don't believe a shift in venue is worth 5.0 points in this matchup. I would play Philly on the spread to 5.5.
Model Predicts- 76ers -4.5, OVER 209.5
The Play- 76ers -4.5
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers
I don’t have much time to write about this game, but the 3-star play in this matchup is the under at 227.
The total in Game 2, which was played in Phoenix, closed at 226.5. That number makes sense when you consider how good Phoenix’s defense has been at home this season and the loss of offensive production for the Clippers due to the absence of Paul George.
However, the total has now risen half a point with a change in venue, which does not make much sense to me.
For starters, the under has been red hot in every Clippers home game this season. Per TeamRankings the under is 27-14 when the Clippers are the home team, hitting in 65.9% of those matchups.
It is known that LA has been trending in the wrong direction from a defensive standpoint for months now, but at home this team is one of the best defensive units, owning a Defensive Rating of 111.4 and holding opponents to 110.6 points per game.
The under is already 2-0 in this series, and I think it is set up well to hit again as this will likely be a defensive battle.
Model Predicts- Clippers +2.5, UNDER 227
The Play- UNDER 227
NHL Predictions
No 3-star predictions in the NHL today. The model is still adjusting for playoff performance and all of these teams have only played one game in the postseason so far.
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. Kind of a short one, but hopefully everyone still finds some value in it.
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Let’s have a good one!
Jmack