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Yesterday’s Model Recap
Yesterday was a decent day for both the NBA and NHL models as we saw them post winning records. However, 3-star plays were just 1-1 on the night which put a damper on things.
You can read more about yesterday’s performance in the PDF below.
Today we have a total of seven matchups on our hands, three in the NBA and four in the NHL. One of today’s predictions has been given 3-stars, and I have a few notes on some other matchups.
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Now, let’s get into today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
The Minnesota Timberwolves will stay in Denver on Wednesday to take on the Nuggets in Game 2 of this seven-game series.
Game 1 went very poorly for Minnesota, scoring only 80 points and losing by 29. The Timberwolves scored just 44 points in the first half of that matchup, and followed that up with 36 points in the second half.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets dominated from the opening tip, proving why they are the No.1 seed in the Western Conference.
Game 1 was not very close, and part of the reason why is because of some injuries to Minnesota’s rotation. However, I expect the Timberwolves to have a much better performance on the offensive end in this one, and as a result I am in agreement with the model about the over in this matchup.
You could not have scripted a worse start to a series for Minnesota. The Timberwolves came out of the gates slow and never found their footing, shooting 37% from the floor overall, 31% from three, and an abysmal 56% from the charity stripe.
It was easily one of the uglier offensive performances of the season. In fact, Minnesota’s 80 points was the lowest point total scored by any team this season, coming in just under the Pacers’ 82 points back on December 12th.
However, that performance is by no means reflective of anything other than a bad night, and Minnesota has proven it can score in bunches against this Nuggets team.
According to NBA.com the Timberwolves posted a 118.4 Offensive Rating in four regular season matchups against Denver. That is 5.1 points higher than Minnesota’s season rating of 113.3, leading to an average point total of 120.4 points for the TWolves in the season series. Minnesota matches up well against this Nuggets team on the offensive end.
That rating was achieved by Minnesota shooting a rather efficient 51.5% from the floor while simultaneously scoring an average of 59.5 points per game in the paint. The Wolves have struggled from behind the arc against Denver (34.6%), but they’ve proven that they can score in several other ways.
On the other end of the court we have the Denver Nuggets, the No.1 overall seed in the Western Conference.
Denver achieved the No.1 seed by posting an incredible 34-7 record at home this season. In those 41 games the Nuggets own a +9.6 Net Rating, showing that they were getting things done on both end of the court and dominating every team that came through the Mile High City.
That Net Rating mainly comes from Denver’s Offensive Rating of 119.9, the second highest rating at home behind only Sacramento. Denver can thank its three-point shooting for its high offensive output, an area of the floor in which the Nuggets shot 51.4% from as the home team.
The three-point shooting did fall significantly in Game 1 to 41.0%, but Denver’s Offensive Rating only fell a few points to 114.7 in that matchup. Denver’s Defensive Rating in that matchup was 86.0, which more than made up for the lower offensive output.
All in all I think we get another convincing Nuggets win here, so I wouldn’t be opposed to backing Denver on the spread either like the model says. However, Minnesota will certainly figure things out on the offensive end which will likely push this total above the 223.5 it is listed at.
A major factor in this one is going to be the absence of Jaden McDaniels for Minnesota. As some of you might remember McDaniels punched a wall and broke his hand in the last regular season game of the season, sidelining him for the foreseeable future.
According to our models McDaniels is worth roughly 1.96 points on the spread. He contributes 12.1 points per game on 52% shooting overall and 40% from three, so his absence is a huge blow for Minnesota’s offense and perimeter defense as he is a great defender. Denver will likely continue to light it up from three without McDaniels on the floor.
The season series between these two squads saw an average total of 239.75 points, more than 16 points higher than the total of 223.5. The absence of McDaniels and the poor offensive performance in Game 1 by Minnesota is likely dragging the total down a bit further than it should be, so I think we have some room operate on the over.
Expect tons of points tonight as Minnesota bounces back, at least offensively, and Denver continues its dominance.
Model Predicts- Nuggets -8, OVER 223.5
The Play- OVER 223.5
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
This game should be bet with some caution, but I kind of like the Grizzlies on the spread here even if Ja Morant does not play.
As of right now the model is considering Morant to be out. That is big news for a Grizzlies team that is already dealing with some injuries to role players, and as a result of all the absences the model shifts this line 4.4 points backwards. It originally predicted the Grizzlies to win by a little more than 6.0 points if everyone was healthy, but now predicts them to win by just over 2.0 points.
However, the Grizzlies have played great basketball when Ja Morant is off the floor, so I’m not too worried about the grizzlies chances here. Per StatMuse Memphis is 37-24 when Morant misses a game, and even this season they went 11-10 without him.
The Lakers do look great and are a dark horse, but Memphis is a tough place for opponents to win at. The Grizzlies went 35-6 at home this season.
It’s not a 3-star play, but I would not be surprised to see the Grizzlies win this one and even the series.
Model Predicts- Grizzlies +1, OVER 226.5
NHL Predictions
Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers
No 3-star play here, but one quick note on the model’s predictions.
As of right now the goalie situation for Los Angeles is unclear. Since acquiring Joonas Korpisalo at the trade deadline they have had a rotation of him and Pheonix Copley in net, and since Korpisalo played Game 1 I threw Copley into the model for tonight’s game.
Copley was a stud in net for LA, and I’m very surprised they started to drift away from him. Copley went 24-6-3 in the regular season with a GAA of 2.64, and per MoneyPuck ranked 28th in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected with 4.7.
If Korpisalo plays then the model flips to predicting the Oilers to win, but if Copley plays then it is the exact prediction above. Either way I’m not a huge fan of the Kings ML, but I think getting them at +1.5 with odds of -145 is solid value.
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. Hopefully we can get another 3-star winner today!
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Let’s have a good one!
Jmack