April 19, 2022- The Return
After a several month hiatus, I have decided that this was the perfect time to return and start putting out some write-ups again.
I’ve still been writing for the Action Network and I know some of you have been reading some of what I have to say over there, but the general consensus has been that this newsletter is the best way to get my thoughts on several games throughout the NBA, NFL, MLB and the NCAA.
So, today is going to be the first day of my return. I can’t promise that there will be a write-up every day of the week to start, but beginning the second week of May it is my goal to crunch the numbers and send them out to all of you every day of the week once again.
Today I only have predictions for the NBA, as the MLB is still getting into the swing of things and most of the numbers I keep track of don’t have a significant enough sample size to make much of an accurate prediction in that league.
So, lets get right into the NBA predictions.
NBA Predictions
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Notable injuries (Miami)- Bam Adebayo (GTD), Gabe Vincent (GTD), PJ Tucker GTD), Dewayne Dedmon (GTD), Markieff Morris (GTD)
Notable Injuries (Atlanta)-Lou Williams (OUT), Clint Capela (OUT), Bogdan Bogdanovic (GTD)
Atlanta had quite the fall from grace after making the Eastern Conference Finals last season. It was quite an impressive run, but as we have seen for a majority of this season, the Hawks are still not quite ready to be contenders.
Atlanta’s biggest issue comes on the defensive end of the floor, where they rank near the bottom of the league in several categories. The Hawks posted a Defensive Rating of 113.7, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions, during the regular season. That number ranked them 26th in the NBA, which is the lowest ranking by any team to make the playoffs this season.
In addition, the Hawks allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from the floor and 36% from behind the arc in the regular season, both of which are well above the league average in those areas. They also surrendered the 19th most points per game in the paint at 48, and given that Clint Capela is expected to be sidelined for this matchup that could pose a big problem.
That lack of a defensive presence was on full display in Game 1 of this series, a game in which Miami shot 52% from the floor, 47% from three, and scored 38 points in the paint. Putting up those kind of numbers while continuing to be one of the more stifling defenses in the NBA (4th best Defensive Rating, held opponents to 33% from three in regular season) made Game 1 a walk in the park.
This is a complicated game to pick, because as the day goes on its likely this line jumps up to 7.5-8 points as more players from the Heat roster get cleared to play and the model only likes the Heat to 7 points and the total to just under 220. There isn’t much room for movement in this one, so if you can’t get the total at 219 or below or the spread at -7 for Miami or below, I would stay away.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
I discussed this game in full detail over at the Action Network. Last night when I wrote the article the spread was sitting at -7 in favor of Memphis, and I like the Timberwolves to cover that spread and potentially steal another win on the road. The link for that matchup is attached below if you want to check it out.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/timberwolves-vs-grizzlies-odds-game-2-preview-prediction-pick-nba-april-19-2022
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns
Notable Injuries- None
Game 1 of this series had a little bit of everything. It appeared that Phoenix was going to run away with the win after New Orleans scored just six points in the first seven minutes of the game, but the Pelicans battled all the way back and lost by just 11 points, coming up one point short of covering the spread.
It’s clear that the Suns are the better team in this series, and a sweep is very much on the table. At the end of the regular season, they had the fifth best Offensive Rating in the NBA (114.2) and the third best Defensive Rating (106.8), becoming the only team in the league to be ranked inside the top five in both of those metrics.
However, New Orleans made some moves at the deadline in an attempt to make a postseason push, and in the end it worked to perfection and has made them far more competitive.
The Pelicans had every reason to give up, as they began their season with a record of 1-12 and Zion Williamson had no timetable for a return and reportedly wanted to be traded.
However, they eventually got things together and decided it was time to make a move, which landed them CJ McCollum. Since acquiring McCollum from Portland, the Pelicans have posted an Offensive Rating of 117.2, which ranks ninth in the NBA over that span. McCollum has clearly given this offense some much-needed juice with Williamson sidelined, as prior to that trade New Orleans had the 19th-best Offensive Rating at 111.2.
The one-two punch of Ingram and McCollum might not be enough to steal a win from Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Co., but it is certainly enough to remain competitive and keep this game inside double digits. I like the spread at +9.5 a lot.
NBA Player Props
Tonight is a night that I feel very comfortable backing the Timberwolves, and as a result I have two props for D’Angelo Russell that have good value.
Props- D’Angelo Russell OVER 18.5 points, D’Angelo Russell OVER 2.5 made threes
D’Angelo Russell put together a horrendous performance in Game 1 of this series, scoring just 10 total points on 2/11 shooting from the field.
As a result, it looks like some of betting market is either staying away from him or betting his under, which has pushed the totals a little bit lower than what I have them calculated at.
During the regular season the Timberwolves and Grizzles crossed paths four total times, resulting in two wins for both squads. In that four game stretch, Russell managed to average 31 points per game and shot an incredible 56% from the floor and 46% from behind the arc, showing off a level of efficiency that he has not shown against many other teams this season.
For some reason he is able to find a rhythm against Memphis, making an average of 4.8 three pointers on 10.3 attempts per game, which bodes well for both the point total of 18.5 and the 2.5 made threes.
I’m currently seeing odds for over 18.5 points at +100 and over 2.5 made threes sitting at +130 on DraftKings, and I assume they are similar on other books. It feels like the bad Game 1 performance is being taken into consideration far too much, and given what he did in the regular season it was clearly a fluke. I have 1 unit on the over 18.5 points and half a unit on over 2.5 threes.
Conclusion
That is all for today folks. Today was a good way to ease back into things with just three NBA games on the slate, and eventually I will be adding the MLB predictions back into the mix as I stated earlier.
In addition, the old SportSense twitter account has seemed to have gone MIA, so hopefully by the end of today I will have another one up and going that you can all follow along with for more analysis and updates on the predictions. In the meantime, you can follow me on twitter @jacobmckenna99 where I will have some of my Action Network content ready to view.
It feels good to be back. Let’s win some money!