April 18, 2023 NBA and NHL Game Predictions
Expect the Suns to bounce back and the Devils to go up 1-0 in the series
Follow SportSense on Twitter & Join our FREE Referral Program!
SportSense Entertainment is officially on Twitter! We will begin using our twitter account to tweet out our daily newsletter and to post updates of our model predictions throughout the day as more and more games are played.
If you would like to see some more content that isn’t just this newsletter and our other newsletters, make sure to give us a follow by searching @SportSenseEnt or simply click the button below to be sent to our account page.
SportSense Free Referral Program
The SportSense Referral Program is a new addition to SportSense that will allow current SportSense readers to send a unique referral link to their friends, family, etc. and once you hit a certain amount of referrals you will win prizes and receive more content for FREE!
The prizes are as follows, and will be received based on the number of referrals one is able to gather.
3 Referrals- Gain Access to SportSense subreddit (r/sportsense).
5 referrals- Receive weekly/season model performance reports. These will be sent out in a separate newsletter every Monday.
10 referrals- Gain access to our player prop models
Signing up for the referral program is free and simple and can be done by clicking the “Join SportSense Referral Program below”.
After clicking that button you will be taken to the sign up page. Sign up with the same email that you use to receive the newsletter everyday (you will see why below).
Once you type in your email and hit “Join Us”, you will be taken to another page that provides you with your official SportSense Referral link. That is the link that you will send out to whomever you choose, and our website will keep track of how many users sign up via that link.
Once someone clicks on your link, they will be taken to a page where they can type in their email and then hit “Subscribe”. Then they’ll officially be a part of the SportSense community and receive the newsletter daily! I will manually upload all referrals into the Substack email list and they should receive the newsletter the next day.
I will manually add all people who reach the required referral amount to the additional newsletters as well, so there is no need for you guys to do much other than sign up for the program and send out your link.
Yesterday’s Model Recap
Yesterday wasn’t the greatest day for either the NBA or NHL model, essentially going .500 across the board. There were no 3-star plays yesterday, but the predictions that I discussed in the newsletter went 1-1 overall which summarizes the day well.
You can read more about yesterday’s performance in the PDF below.
Today our models once again have predictions for every NBA and NHL game that is scheduled to take place, with two of today’s predictions being given 3-stars.
Also, if you enjoy reading SportSense make sure to like this post and sign up for our free referral program by clicking the “Join SportSense Referral Program” button above! That will allow you to access some of our other newsletters, such as our Model Track and Prop Corner newsletters, as well as the SportSense subreddit, for free simply by referring your friends/family to SportSense.
Now, let’s get into today’s predictions.
NBA Predictions
Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns
The Los Angeles Clippers will go up against the Phoenix Suns in Game 2 of the first round on Tuesday night.
Los Angeles got the better of Phoenix in Game 1, winning by a score of 115-110. That was a rather impressive victory for LA, especially considering Paul George was sidelined for that matchup.
The Suns certainly did not have their best stuff to start this series, coming out of the gates very slow and scoring just 18 points in the first quarter. That made any sort of comeback almost impossible down the stretch.
Phoenix gets a second crack at it tonight, but will the Suns be able to tie the series before it heads to Los Angeles? Let’s dive into the matchup and see why I agree with the model that Phoenix can not only get back in the win column, but also cover the 7.5-point spread tonight.
Given the circumstances facing the Los Angeles Clippers in Round 1 it was quite impressive to see Los Angeles escape with a win, especially on the road. Kawhi Leonard led the way with 38 points, and the Clips also got double-digit scoring production from Ivica Zubac, Eric Gordon, Terance Mann, and Norman Powell.
However, there are still some concerns for Los Angeles that made an appearance in Game 1 despite leaving the arena with a win.
For example, defense has surprisingly been a massive struggle for this Clippers team since the new year began. Since January 1st Los Angeles has posted a 116.6 Defensive Rating, a rating that ranks 21st in the NBA and is up from its rating of 110.0 prior to 2023 starting.
The largest area of concern for the Clippers in that span of time has been their inability to defend the perimeter, an area of the floor where opponents are shooting 38.8% since January 1st, per NBA.com. That percentage ranks 28th in the league in that time.
Part of the reason for the perimeter struggles has been the injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, both of whom missed some time in the new year, and Paul George will be absent for this game which will likely lead to those struggles continuing. Per StatMuse the Clippers are 12-14 overall without Paul George on the floor, allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% from three.
We shouldn’t take credit away from LA’s Game 1 win, but it will be a tall task to repeat that performance against two of the best perimeter scorers in the NBA in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, two guys who combined for score 53 points on 50% shooting in Game 1.
On the other end of the court we have the Phoenix Suns, a team that came out of the gates slow to start the series and got buried because of it.
As previously mentioned Phoenix scored just 18 points in the first quarter of Game 1, putting themselves in an early 12-point hole. A big reason why Phoenix struggled to get out of that hole is because the Suns were out-rebounded 15-6 on the offensive glass, leading to a second chance points margin of -5.
That certainly is not going to get the job done at this stage of the season, but the Suns did show some life in that game that proved this team is capable of bouncing back tonight.
Phoenix outscored Los Angeles by seven points across the final three quarters of Game 1, eventually tying the game by the end of the third quarter. The Suns managed to do that despite shooting just 27.3% from behind the arc in the second half, failing to expose the Clippers’ biggest weakness but still getting back in the game.
The Suns are also not a team that comes out of the gates sluggish very often, especially with Kevin Durant on the roster. According to NBA.com Phoenix has posted a 117.8 first half Offensive Rating since Durant joined the team, the eighth best mark in the NBA. That has led to a +5.9 first half Net Rating (4th best in NBA) in that span of time, showing that this is one of the best two way teams in the league with Durant on the team.
If Phoenix can eliminate the early struggles then it should have no problems taking care of a short-handed Suns team that can’t defend the perimeter consistently.
All in all I think it is likely we see a bounce-back performance from Phoenix. I wouldn’t say LA’s Game 1 win was a fluke, but the Suns were a better team across the final 36 minutes and only lost because they shot themselves in the foot early on.
Phoenix is 8-1 this season with Durant on the floor, shooting over 37.0% from three in those games. After shooting 32% from three in Game 1 the Suns should come back up to their season average, which will help build a lead substantial enough to cover the spread. The model only likes the spread to 7.5, but I would personally extend it to 8.5.
Model Predicts- Suns -7.5, UNDER 225.5
The Play- Suns -7.5
NHL Predictions
New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils
Round 1 of the playoffs kicks off with a huge Metropolitan Division battle between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils. New Jersey went 3-1 in the season series against New York, and I agree with the model that the Devils have a great chance to win this game and start the up 1-0.
The New York Rangers are a fantastic hockey team, but many statistics suggest this team is due for some regression.
Per Natural Stat Trick the Rangers rank 11th in the NHL in Goals For per 60 minutes (GF/60) and ninth in Goals Against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 situation since February 1st. However, New York ranks 22nd in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 17th in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5 situations in that same timeframe.
What that tells us is that New York is over performing on both ends of the ice across the last two and a half months, meaning that this team is long overdue to come back down to Earth. We already started to see that happen at the end the regular season when the Rangers went 3-5 in the last eight games.
The opposite is likely to occur for the Devils, arguably the best two-way team in the NHL this season.
Since February 1st the Devils rank fifth in GF/60 in 5-on-5, but New Jersey ranks second in xGF/60 in that same span of time. The same trend can be seen on the defensive end, where New Jersey ranks 10th in GA/60 but fourth in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations.
New Jersey also has a slight advantage in net here, at least when looking at the season series.
Igor Shesterkin is expected to start in net for New York, and there is no doubt he has had a great season. However, Shesterkin is 1-3 against the Devils this season and has surrendered an average of 3.25 goals per game. He also owns a Save % of .907 in those matchups (StatMuse).
Vitek vanecek will get the start for New Jersey, who posted a 33-11-4 record in the regular season.
At the end of the day we have seen the Devils have an upper hand against the Rangers all season long, and from a statistical standpoint they are the team that is more likely to trend upward in the postseason. I’ll back New Jersey on the money line here.
Model Predicts- Devils ML, OVER 6
The Play- Devils ML
Conclusion
That is all for today’s write-up. Yesterday wasn’t a super exciting day, but we have some more matchups on our hands today that will hopefully provides us with more winners!
Also, make sure to keep signing up for our free referral program and following us on Twitter to receive more free content! It would be greatly appreciated.
Let’s have a good one!
Jmack